WxUSAF

There it is. 10” again

There’s a 1002mb low in the east gulf and a 1035mb arctic high to the north. I’m starting the snow blower.

I had barely finished shoveling the last one

5 offensive possessions. 5 TDs

It’s like us getting a 10” snowstorm every week for 3 months. It’s so far out of my experience that my brain can’t understand what’s happening.

My Baltimore sports brain can’t compute how good this team is

Damn it chuck Clark, that’s 2 stupid plays on that series. Fall on the fumble!!!

Acceptable first quarter. would be rough to lose Skura though

I’m nervous about this game. But I’m nervous about every game. If they do lose, I think it will just be because the rams out play them.

I agree with @Bob Chill that hoping for a snowy deform band like the GFS is currently showing for the NYC-BOS corridor is tilting at windmills. I’m not sure which of the WAA overrunning or the ULL passage is most likely to offer snow chances. Both are likely to be fairly narrow areas and the airmass is marginal in both cases. Today’s euro probably showed max upside. P.S. the track shifting a bit south certainly helps the WAA chances.

Exactly. 0z Eps brings back -EPO/+PNA at the end, so it shows it also for week 3.

Euro gets it done just by slightly strengthening that high to our north and also starting the coastal transfer earlier to our south. Like the gfs, euro takes the ULL basically overhead and takes the precip with it through central VA.

Snow on the euro!! hr132 has snow for points N and E of DC and continues at 138! Weenie maps have 4” for Baltimore! Lol

The trend for the LR to look far from catastrophic continues on the 12z GEFS. The super positive AO is gone, with it probably neutral or weakly positive by the 3rd or so. Still looks to me like there’s a lot of spread after the 3rd or 4th.

I’m down with the GGEM day 10. Let’s go!

Starting to think we should be paying less attention to the WAA front end of next weekends storm and more attention to squeezing some snow out of the ULL as it moves past overnight Sunday into Monday.

We are not going to know anything about storm chances after next weekend for a while, in my opinion. Whether it’s a clipper or something larger the following weekend. Because next weekends storm will have so much control over the flow afterwards. So focusing on next weekend is probably the safe bet for now. I think what we want to root for is something like the Canadian showed today, with a more significant piece of energy Moving out ahead of the main storm. If it could move to our south it could give us a light event and also help drag the boundary further south for the larger storm which would give us a better chance of more front end freezing or frozen precipitation.

EPS has looked better than the GEFS for the last 2-3 runs past D10. I don't hate that. The Dec 1-2 storm looks like it will suck the oxygen out of the room so to speak for a couple days beyond. That makes that trough go more N-S oriented and prevents any follow-on s/w from amplifying out of the southwest. So we might need to wait for the flow to relax a little (barring a clipper in the 3rd-5th timeframe) around the 8th. Then of course it's a question of cold air availability, but getting snow is always a wackamole of issues.

HM seems confident it’s temporary, if it happens. Plus the strat shenanigans.

I agree that’s how it’s looking now past the 7th or so, but things have been very changeable D10+ as we know. Look at the 12z GEFS depiction of the NAO. Even vs a day or two ago, it’s holding onto the Greenland ridging much more. Just a wag since I haven’t looked at individual members, but I get the sense from the mean that there’s probably very wide divergence in solutions in the long range. Still think we got a decent chance of freezing/frozen precip the first week of the month. Beyond that...dunno.

Snow mixing in in Bel Air area per my sister

Yeah, the pattern in the 3rd-5th time frame that I was interested in, now seems entirely northern stream dominated. The ensembles now see a +PNA in that time frame which wasn’t there a few days ago. So a clipper type storm is probably the only option in that window unless the look changes. Which is possible because we’re still 10 days out. I liked the broader, more E-W oriented trough with energy coming out of the southwest. Now it’s more N-S oriented, so colder, but also drier. 6z gfs actually has a clipper in that timeframe.

39 and rain. Almost mid winter form

There’s a strong standing wave over the West Indian Ocean associated with MJO phase 8 and +IOD. It’s not an MJO wave per se, but might force the forcing to behave that way.

HM says don’t jump