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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I think this is a reasonable target from where we are now.
  2. WxUSAF
    Yup. At the moment I think hoping that the QPF max is over DC-Balt is pretty big reach. But I think we're still very much in the game to have that northern edge/cutoff draped somewhere through the region.
  3. WxUSAF
    There does seem to be a pattern in the last 5 days where are "best" runs are 0z. Probably coincidence, but weird. We need the storm to hit around 6z Monday obvs.
  4. WxUSAF
    Looks a LOT like the 12z euro.
  5. WxUSAF
    Infinitesimal shift south on the confluence leads to a ~20-50mi south shift on precipitation extent on the GFS. Southern s/w seems to continue to trend every so slightly stronger each run, but it doesn't seem to make much difference. That northern s/w that's trying to phase is slower and that doesn't help. Next.
  6. WxUSAF
    Wow, I like it. All in all, I still feel like we're in just ping-pong mode. I was hoping EPS would keep trending positively, but it put us almost exactly back to yesterday 12z. As much as I wish we'd either by in or out, I think this one is going to string us along for awhile more.
  7. WxUSAF
    Jan 30, 2010 was showing up on the analogs earlier this week I think for this storm.
  8. WxUSAF
    Worse than 0z it seems but it looks better than the 12z GFS through 120 at least (at 500mb). Ugh at 144 though.
  9. WxUSAF
    Through 72, euro looks better than yesterday's 12z at least in all the ways I can see. Confluence better, s/w deeper and northern s/w deeper and closer as well. How did last night's 0z look as a reminder?
  10. WxUSAF
    EPS seems to be trending. Fingers crossed that continues at 12z. Ukie aside, we do seem to have gotten rid of the WAY far south solutions that don’t get precip north of the Va/NC line in the last day. Consensus right now puts the cutoff between shoveling and tears between RIC and EZF.
  11. WxUSAF
    1.5"
  12. WxUSAF
    Wettest year on record for BWI after yesterday’s storm. Over 63” now with a month and a half left in the year.
  13. WxUSAF
    Final spreadsheet 2018 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
  14. WxUSAF
    Drumroll please! The 2018 Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest winner is: @2010 extreme! @2010 extreme won with a total departure of just 9 days, @Cobalt came in 2nd place with 11 days, followed by @yoda with 13 days and @nj2va with 15 days. Our combined average dates resulted in a departure of 32 days.
  15. WxUSAF
    First freeze contest is over! I’ll post results later today.
  16. WxUSAF
    BWI: 31.5” DCA: 22.7” IAD: 35.2” RIC: 21.1” SBY: 16.6” MBY: 34.2”
  17. WxUSAF
    I like this a lot
  18. WxUSAF
    Lol
  19. WxUSAF
    BWI hit 32 on the intrahour. RIC fell short.
  20. WxUSAF
    Yeah could be. Don’t think anyone gets to 32 this week but next week is probably an even money or better chance.
  21. WxUSAF
    34 entries this year. Our average values are: DCA: 11/17/18 BWI: 11/3/18 IAD: 10/30/18 RIC: 11/16/18 Tie: 4.03" So a week to 10 days past climo for the most part. DCA value is close to climo I believe. Looks like next week has the first legit threat, particularly for the non-DCA locations. IAD has 1.02" of rain to date for reference. 2018 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
  22. WxUSAF
    DCA: 11/24 BWI: 11/8 IAD: 11/8 RIC: 11/17 Tie: 4.7
  23. WxUSAF
    DCA has gone into December I know. Don’t know about the other 3.
  24. WxUSAF
    This is my current thinking.
  25. WxUSAF
    Although we're suffering through endless summer and tropical moistness, we should, in theory, be only weeks away from the first freeze in our region (minus DCA, which may never have a freeze again). You are forecasting the first day the temperature reaches 32F at these locations: DCA: BWI: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker: October rainfall at IAD. Lowest total departure wins! This thread will lock at midnight September 30th.
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