WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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30% chance of a period of snow tomorrow morning? That seems rather low...
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Since I’m not home, I’m relying on you to be chief slantsticker for eastern HoCo! Don’t fail me!
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Yes, but it’s most severe in the medium and long range. In the short range it’s minimal. But of course that’s an average across lots of space and time, so it could be wrong either way in any particular location and time.
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Show him the HRDPS...he'll switch.
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Yeah. I was looking at 3k NAM soundings around DC/Balt and it's pretty minimal and mostly at 900mb actually. The models account for precip evaporating/subliming during descent (I'm 99% sure...) so can't really explain it.
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NAM doesn't. It's drier in terms of precip, but has a moister column below 850mb.
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Something is majorly weird with the GFS and that 850mb dry layer that develops between 0z and 6z Wednesday. I don't see how that is consistent with 0.2-0.5" of liquid equivalent. Pivotal shows the same info as TT, so it's not that one is plotting bad data. Just bizarre.
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Traveling today so haven’t been able to look at much, but GEFS was tanking the AO. How does the ao look on the eps?
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You and Ji are the same person, right?
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Yup. Smidge colder, 1-2F, than 0z and maybe a touch wetter.
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That gfs sounding is just bizarre. I don’t understand how that jives with moderate precip. Compare that to the NAM sounding Bob posted which makes much more sense.
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I think coating-3” probably covers it
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Time to shovel
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So far only a flurry in Buffalo, but I’m pulling the snowblower out.
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Euro’s quite nice. A bit colder too which helps a lot.
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Lol, just as the pole and Atlantic look to shift better, the Pac wants to take a crap. I’m still skeptical until it happens since this has been advertised a few times in the last 6 weeks only to either not happen or be very transient.
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Cranky’s thoughts
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You’re in it
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Inside 72hrs with today’s 12z runs.
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Specific thread for Wednesday before or after 12z? We’re inside 3 days now.
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18z euro is quite good apparently and snowing at the end of the run
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Wow. Cowan is just carrying the team. What a comeback.
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HH delivers again on the Wednesday snow. Well, dusting-2" at least.
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Yup, this is not a pattern for long track snow threats, but is one that could produce. Active pattern with cold air around. That said...if the ao does flip next week and the NAO starts moving as well...
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I’m not sold that the EPO ridge goes away anytime soon. That keeps getting can kicked. The pacific might not be ideal at times, but I don’t see anything overtly hostile.
