WxUSAF

Elkins WV reporting 1/4mi +SN

4” soil temps are practically body temperature

hmmmm

Take comfort in knowing your sacrifice benefits the greater good. i.e., snow in my yard

All hail the king! Let’s do this.

Tale as old as time, song as old as rhyme, weenie suicide!

29/21

Don’t forget you have to act surprised tomorrow

^that colder wave that goes through is probably a function of heavier precip dragging cold air to the surface plus full wetbulbing.

This snow threat and this weekends torch have been advertised by the ensembles from very long range. Like 12 days plus. Pretty damn good.

I'm glad the models are recognizing that at short range. Leeetttt'ssss goooooooo

It looks like only surface is near or above freezing while snowing. Column is good. Recall March 2018 and that was March 21st.

Yes, if it's a largely sleet event maybe. I don't have the photographic memory for T-2" events that @psuhoffman has, but I recall some slop storm from the last couple years that looked super marginal on temps. 10:1 was like 2-4", but the snow depth maps were all like 0.1-1". I was hedging pretty hard on the snow depth maps, and the spotter reports ended up mostly like 1-2". Which I think was pretty close to Kuchera. Kuchera seems like a pretty good call in a marginal snow or rain scenario. Sleet does complicate a bit.

If the NAM is right, it's.a 4-hr long beatdown. Probably not right, but all the guidance today seems to suggest at least 1-2 hours of solid rates. It's early January fercrissakes. Yes, near-surface temps are a bit warm, but the column is perfectly cold.

I literally can’t recall a single event where the snow depth map was the best verifying forecast product. Yes 10:1 isn’t always good. Kuchera seems to be in the right sort of ballpark if there’s any precip type or temp issues. Tomorrow isn’t THAT marginal unless you want to take your spotter reports from on the asphalt of the beltway.

Tropical forcing progression supports the evolution of the Pac ridge like what the GEPS shows. The current MJO wave should progress toward the dateline which are cold phases for us. This pattern shown by Ventrice supports a cold eastern conus. Especially if the forcing NE of Australia is centered nearer or just east of the dateline.

@mappy setting expectations low so she can be “surprised” when she has over 2” and DCA has rain.

Euro looks solid (by this storms standards). Much juicier storm relative to 0z.

ALL IN

MJO forecasts always have a bias of killing the wave off too quickly. That strong of a wave with steady eastward progression won’t suddenly die in phase 6.

Lots of 1 step forward 1 step back on the long range ensembles. It’s clear nothings happening for awhile. Hope for a Feb 15 level turnaround.

GEFS goes ape sh-t on the Scand ridge and starts around D10 so not too far out in fantasyland. EPO also teaches poleward through AK. Still not a great pattern but could be close to a workable one by the end if it worked out that way.

I had 7.2” from that event

I had just over 3” from that.