WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Pingers mixing back in here. Shows up on CC radar well.
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HoCo took their sweet time delaying. ZR here now. Anybody nearby get a measurement before the flip? @Herb@MAWS @Scraff @osfan24
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Light snow with a patio table dusting.
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Flakes now in Columbia. Ready for rippage.
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Dang radar says it should be coming down here in Columbia but nothing yet.
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32/18
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Solid run for the northern tier. Looks like I should measure snow on the north side of my yard to max totals.
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I’ve felt good for a solid February storm the entire winter. Don’t see a reason to change that.
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Best wishes for your son! And also best wishes for when you’re surprised about shoveling 5” of snow tomorrow!
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This is where I’m at. Think we get 1-2” of snow/sleet all total. Some ice. Lots of cold rain. note this is for MBY.
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Has Fairfax closed yet?
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Not sure yet, but I think 2” is certainly in play. I think Monday might be a fun wintry day. Snow in the morning, some sleet, pause, a bit more snow and sleet in the evening.
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I think that’s true for the GEFS. Eps is more stingy.
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You know we’ve all gotten enough snow this winter not to be terrible junkies just because everyone’s too good for an inch or four of slop.
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Sure we could. And we'll probably get *some* snow whether or not it develops. A nice NAO/50-50 combo just increases the chances for a big event.
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The shutout pattern in December had that Pac jet blasting into the west coast. Now it's barely making it to the dateline before splitting. That's a pretty good look actually. If anything we want it to extend a bit farther so that ridge is closer to the west coast. It gets there right at the very end, but 14-16 days out, etc. That jet across the CONUS there is primarily STJ.
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12z Eps was the best run yet for this storm, right?
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?
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True. What doesn’t hold water for me is how the gfs handles the CAD in today’s run. High is stronger and in a better position and just has no holding power on temps. Don’t buy it at all. GFS consistently sucks with CAD and don’t think it’s right now.
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There are no trends yet. Yesterday the models “trended” toward a weaker primary. Last night they went the other way. It’s still pretty scattershot within a plausible envelope of possibilities. We know the general setup right now. Details that will impact our sensible weather still have to be sorted out.
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Overnight runs also made a clear step towards more overrunning precip Sunday night and Monday and link that with the main event Tuesday. Still obvious we don’t have this locked down.
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Eh don’t know about that. Cyclonic flow around a distinct LP area will help reinforce CAD and bring more precip. Some of the random great looks we’ve had for this event have the energy split around 50:50 between the primry and coastal.
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Only because 12z had sleet. 18z is easily more snow.
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18z GFS definitely puts more energy into the piece that transfers to the coast. Subtle differences from 12z, but ends up a bit better for us in the only way we care about.
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I could be wrong, I was just going off memory. Could just be 7/8. On a related note, I wonder if the SSW *does* end up actually saving this winter from being a raging dumpster fire for all of the eastern CONUS. Will be an interesting study.
