WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Or not
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He landed out of bounds
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A Blizzard Watch has been issued for Baltimore, MD. This watch will be upgraded by 9pm as conditions warrant.
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That D9-10 look on the GEFS and EPS is KUish.
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^looks a lot like the Eps. I said just the other day the phase 7 composite looked a lot like the progs minus the ao and NAO. Well...
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Who the hell gave up on it?
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IF, giant IF, we get a major strat disruption in early-mid Feb, that would support winter hanging on into March when potentially tropical forcing could be in warm phases by mid-late Feb. Lots of wild speculation there lol
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Strat shenanigans later?
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Thanks for the stopping by Deb
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12z EPS rollin' in like
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This looks like the GEFS over the pole with the EPS PNA ridge. NAO is off either way, but in general a pretty decent match.
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I like the longwave pattern on the GEFS a lot. -EPO/-AO plus some Southwest ridging. And very active storm track. Very nice.
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If the small possibility of cold/dry in 15 days is too much to bear for you, you could always just look at the 18z GFS for next weekend. You'll feel better.
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Looks like brief snow/mix to rain. Highs not in a great position for cad.
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Ensembles have already been clueing in on the 19th and low and behold that’s what the Op throws out. And snow-ice-rain is a very plausible outcome in the longwave pattern late next week.
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I think the MJO wave makes it to phase 8 eventually. Amplitude TBD. Not sure if it makes it beyond that, but dying in the COD after phase 7/8 wouldn’t be the worst thing. The very long range MJO progs have a new wave developing over Africa and the western IO in early February, which is also a cold phase 1/2 for us. But that’s way way out there.
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Mid Atlantic 2019/2020 season snow totals
WxUSAF replied to Midlo Snow Maker's topic in Mid Atlantic
3.5" after 2.3" yesterday -
No, going to be some mixey storms ahead most likely as the trough carves it’s way eastward successively after each cutter. Best chance for an all snow solution before the last week of January is probably a weak overrunning storm or a follow up wave to a cutter with a perfect track.
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Euro holds off rain until after the game mostly. Gfs probably brings it in during the 2nd half
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I’ll take that. Next week could be a lot of fun between storm tracking and preparing for the AFC championship game. I hope Eps throws us a bone toward what the GEFS was suggesting for the high latitudes. Either way, I’m getting more encouraged about where we’re headed for the last week of January and hopefully beyond.
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GEFS is active AF from the 17th until the end of the run. I bet most of the precip is rain, but seeing pressing arctic air from the north with a firehouse of moisture coming in from the southern plains probably will make EJ tingly.
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Sometimes it pastes as “rich text”. You don’t want that. Arctic air is a crazy thing
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Just paste the link to the tweet
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@psuhoffman I think your map ended up verifying well.
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I think the MJO gets to phase 8. I think question is whether it gets to phase 1. Long range MJO plots like Roundy’s show it getting into 8 with subsidence over the maritime continent. As far as sensible weather, getting major ice/mix storm vibes from the period after the 17th. Lots of cold arctic air to the north but with SE ridge tendencies.
