I wouldn’t give up on the NYE event yet. All 3 globals showed a much better high in advance of it today. Just need a piece of it to break off and come east.
Some hints of a CAD situation though... If we could get some energy to run out ahead or get some overrunning ahead of that warm front, that could be a way to get some frozen precip.
Crappy Pac pattern.
I haven’t seen the euro, but GFS, NAM, GGEM, and RGEM all have a narrow band of snow south of DC through southern MD on Xmas. Where it falls is slightly different for each of them, but someone may get a surprise dusting-1” Friday.
I’ll give it another couple days but I think the 28th storm is a rain event. NAO block at that time doesn’t look as west-based as it did several days ago, which allows the primary to cut far to our NE before transferring.
Speaking of January, 12z EPS gets VERY close to a 10mb wind reversal in the Strat just after New Years, and apparently the latest Euro monthly keeps things rockin' through most of January at least.
@SnowDreamer, look a few panels earlier for where the high pressure to the northeast of us there originates. It’s down along the SE coast! It’s a hot flaming garbage airmass, that’s why it’s rain for everyone. That high to the northwest is legit, but it hasn’t arrived in time. It’s a weird and very unusual evolution. And nine days out so I wouldn’t hold your breath on it.