WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I think all 3 globals got closer to “something” with the 12z runs. They essentially split the follow up wave into 2 parts so the second barely has a little precip around as the cold air arrives. It’s very much on the razor edge and I wouldn’t believe it until short range if it played out this way. If some how that second part can separate more and therefore have the cold air more in place, we’d have a more confident chance.
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Yeah BAMwx going pretty hard on the 13-14 analog on Twitter this morning.
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Flurries in Ellicott city per Mrs. WxUSAF
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Could be @psuhoffmans 3rd or 4th accumulating event? According to my calculations, that many accumulating events by December 6th means we get a HECS in January.
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Was wondering if those radar echoes were producing. Nothing here though.
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Which comes next? White Christmas or 75F+ Christmas?
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Today could be the rare day with a midnight high and midnight low! BWI was 45 last night at midnight and temp will likely slowly drop overnight.
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We need that initial wave to be stronger and drag the boundary south of us. The potential snow-producing wave can’t be the one to pull the cold air in. Then we’re chasing moisture with cold.
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Haven’t seen many spotter reports (slackers!), but based on social media pictures, the Carroll-Baltimore-Harford counties area got a solid 0.5”+ this morning.
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Family in bel air said coming down well and even accumulating on the road in this burst. Just rain near Greenbelt.
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Did it accumulate?
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Currier and Ives wrote about that I think
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A NWS employee in Elkridge reported 0.1” at 11pm last night. Anyone nearby confirm? @Scraff?
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To my eye, all 3 ensembles appear in the process of redeveloping western ridging at the end of their runs. GEPS is fastest and GEFS is slowest, with EPS in the middle. Also been a notable guidance trend toward more ridging over the pole the last couple days and it continues through the ensemble periods. That can’t hurt.
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95-96!!
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Uh…was that it?? Mrs. WxUSAF heard sleet against the window overnight
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From the plots of it I’ve see on Twitter, euro weeklies today emphatically say winter is coming back around Xmas.
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Euro fantasy range also with the “heckuva way to run a blowtorch” arctic blast. 12z yesterday did that too.
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Euro doesn’t go to gfs strength, but kinda the idea and does strengthen the precursors enough to drag in cold air.
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It’s a foregone conclusion that one of next weeks AN anomalies will be greater in magnitude than any of the recent BN anomalies, right?
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GGEM/icon track with gfs strength is sort of the mix we need to have a chance outside the mountains
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20.7 low so far. Ties Sunday morning.
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If we get 50 days of winter that have BN temps, I’ll take the over on 1” of snow.
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Only thing I see trackable in the next 10 days is the follow up wave late next week. If we can get that cutter around the 10th to drag in some cold air and time the follow up wave correctly, could get something wintry.
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Didn’t you all hear? @psuhoffman got 4” in November. Rocking winter inbound.
