WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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NAM and/or the GGEM
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0.1” line basically runs 95 in MD tomorrow on the euro. Gfs and GGEM are both more.
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I’m up in sykesville for a baseball game already and plenty of frost here. Low of 40 at home. Meh. edit... down to 39
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18z gfs as rainy as it’s yet been for Sunday. 0.5” contour just south of DC.
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Those in the know know that RIC usually freezes around BWIs date, not DCAs.
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Yesterday was a whopping 1F below normal at BWI. Second below normal day of the month. Only +7F on the month now!
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DCA approaching a record length of time between sub 60F highs
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Hell, take last year and sub in a "normal" December and it ends up being borderline great year.
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Yeah, I've been looking ahead and forgot to pay much attention to this weekend. Maybe IAD too? 3k NAM would suggest so.
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^pants tent in DJFM. First freeze pretty likely IMO for perhaps everyone but DCA in the October 25-Nov 3 window, assuming these looks come fairly close to verifying.
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NOAA winter outlook is out. We're in the above normal temp/above normal precip area, but lowest color contour for each. Temp pattern much more Nina then Nino. Precip doesn't really look like either, but I guess a bit more Nina with lower precip in CA and TX/LA.
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Damn I'd love to see this look in 6-8 weeks. For now it probably just means IAD's (and maybe the other airports') first freeze, some mountain snow showers, and possibly chilly rain for us.
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Jackpotville getting into the swing of things. 1.18” IMBY
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Damn. Euro is 3-5" of rain through next Thursday for the metro corridor (includes today).
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1.1" today. Damn, you ain't kidding. Euro is a dumping for Sunday-Monday.
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Indeed, but this isn't a long-term drought per se. BWI is 6" in the hole before today. If forecasts for the next 10-15 days verify, we could be truly chipping into that deficit rather than just having a normal October.
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0.81”. Let’s see how long this lasts.
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0.34" with 0.11" in 10 minutes.
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0.11" IMBY so far. Biggest rain since late August.
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Rain on the radar! And it’s coming this way!
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Ukie looks a lot like the euro.
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Euro still looks great for tomorrow. 1”+ for the entire metro area.
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That looks like it will be long duration which will be good for the rain to soak in.
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GFS juicier for Annapolis-Baltimore and points east. NoVA screw zone.
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GEFS and EPS both supportive of some cold shots in the last 5-7 days of the month. Something to keep in mind this winter is that the new GFS has a distinct cold bias at long ranges. It's going to really tease us I expect. But I think first frost/freeze for the 'burbs at least looking quite possible before Halloween.
