WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.
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I’m totally fine with it amidst equally chilly BN departures. Except we have permanent +5F departures basically now.
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Probably a couple days with +10-15F departures
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Euro is way slower and torchy, GGEM in the middle. Shocker.
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USDA fields north of greenbelt radiated well as always. Lots of frost. Car thermometer said 37.
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Low of 40. No frost in my yard, but some of the neighbors roofs had a bit of frost.
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Am I missing something with this frost advisory? Guidance looks like maybe near 40?
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Euro and GGEM pretty close lately and in today’s 12z. Not sure if that is coincidence or if the GGEM has gotten better lately. @high risk? For sensible weather, that means both give the big cold dump out west next week which modifies as it moves toward us.
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Euro has moved a bit more progressive on the weekend storm, but the gfs cave is basically complete at 12z.
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Good twitter thread from HM and others this evening. This good tidbit:
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0.61” daily total. 3.27” for the month to date
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Well, gfs not folding yet as of 18z for the weekend and next week.
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It is, but a bit more progressive than previously. Ggem looks similar.
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We’ll see what the euro throws out at 12z, but some stark differences between euro and gfs starting this weekend. Euro going cutoff low happy? Gfs too progressive? Hard to say when both models are maybe playing into their biases. Gfs solution looks way more fun, so I’m rooting for it.
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0.05” of drizzle already
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My oak turned brown and has been dropping due to the drought. Some maples are peaking, some look like late September, and some are half bare. Stupid sycamore is half bare.
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Yup meant to say this too. Probably ~10 days to peak.
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Euro much more in the NAM camp than the GFS for precip amounts tomorrow. 0.5-1” for the metro corridor, but much less for @C.A.P.E..
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Lots of drought busting throughout the southeast and mid-Atlantic
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18z GFS hour 300. Ya’ll slackin’
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Best defensive performance of the year, especially the second half. Got a pass rush finally, even if it didn’t result in sacks. And the best defense was keeping Wilson off the field with the rush game.
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1.4” way more than I ever expected in my wildest NAMasties
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This backside band is a thing of beauty. Pivot, convergence, the whole deal. Just 30 degrees to warm.
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Solid last hurrah here. Over 3/4”.
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#NAMnailedNestor #EuroNailedSandy
