WxUSAF

Yes, cold air would be getting stale for sure. 850 temps on both look chilly now, but if the low was closer to the coast, those could warm. General pattern on the ensembles as we move toward D10+ is to lose cross polar flow, but maintain a +PNA, so we could be BN but not in record territory like next week.

There’s definitely some indications of a coastal low on the GEFS and Eps for next weekend.

Be honest @yoda. We’d take it in the middle of January too and act like we didn’t care that it wasn’t 10”.

I’m rooting for first flakes. Accumulation is major bonus. I’d wager we aren’t done with snow chances for November on next Wednesday. But it is still November.

Ggem and euro both flipped back to a more amplified primary low that cuts inland. Round and round we go.

The cold shots that we’ve had and are about to have seem to have some strat influence, which is limiting the influence of the MJO as it’s moved through warm phases. Last winter, MJO dominated over the strat influence for most of the winter. MJO will get into the colder phases as we move into the 2nd half of the month and it also seems that the strat will continue to get beat up (see Mike Ventrice’s Twitter). So I think there still should be cold air around for much of the month. But what happens in December? Does the MJO heading back into warm phases have an influence? Does the decadal warm December trend happen? Or does the strat continue to help favor some cold air getting down into the eastern CONUS?

Appreciate your thoughts. Hope you’re wrong, but appreciate your thoughts nonetheless. Certainly impossible to deny that the SE ridge has been dominant this year and that winter +NAO has been a decadal trend. What do your analogs show for November? Did they suggest the cold pattern that seems likely to last the first 2-3 weeks of the month at least.

How does an ensemble mean calculate P-type?

Ok. Yeah, that’s hair splitting at D7. Still having a storm and keeping us in the game is the goal at this range. Particularly in November.

I haven’t seen all the Eps snow means for this event, but isn’t this among the best or the best yet?

Don’t know about individual members, but the 144hr EPS mean map on TT looked decent. 850 0C line just N/W of the metro corridor with low off the coast. But can see there’s still quite a bit of spread.

DT is in. Sort of. As long as the euro is. https://m.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/first-snow-for-some-tuesday-nov-12-seems-a-good-bet/2543156095731633/

Happy hour looks quite similar to the euro. Basically noise level change from 12z.

I know we only care how much electronic snow falls in each model run, but that was a fairly large shift on the euro. Up until this run, next week’s storm was all northern stream energy, with nothing coming out of that Baja cutoff low. GFS brings out all that energy and phases it, hence the 6z solution. What you see now in all the 12z runs (euro, gfs, and GGEM) is some of that energy coming out and phasing/partially phasing with the northern stream energy. Euro keeps the 2 pieces most separate while the North American models partially phase. Any sort of phase raises the boom/bust scenario up a notch or two. But also phasing is complicated, so don’t expect any sort of locked in scenario anytime soon. The simplest solution for first flakes for us continues to be a northern stream only vort passage that drops some light snow. I’m skeptical of a wound up inland cutter right now, but with the icon, ukie, and a handful of GEFS members showing it, I suppose it can’t be discounted yet.

Ukie also has the strong cutter apparently

Ggem is like 75 hours.

Lol GFS says 100 consecutive hours below freezing at my house next week starting Tuesday. Seems legit.

It’s not anafrontal. It’s overrunning and a frontal wave. Pretty normal way we score. Except it’s November.

I think a phased solution like the GFS showed at 6z is very unlikely. But a northern stream vortmax causing a small area of light precip isn’t crazy. That’s more like what the euro has been showing.

Wouldn't say it went poof. It's weaker and more progressive, but still there. Basically went from area-wide accumulation to area-wide first flakes more or less.

GEFS longwave pattern is pretty gorgeous through the entire run if you like cold and snow chances. Really hope we get looks like this next month and beyond. Eastern trough locked in with -AO and +PNA. And some hints of a continued active pattern. A move toward the euro solution for next weeks possible event as well.

Yo Randy @stormtracker, clean yer crap out of the bus and get it warmed up! Euro snows us next week.

FWIW, the good folks on that OTHER wx forum based in a SE PA city have a very similar view RE: neutralish ENSO, +PDO winters and snowfall. Near normal with better chance of boom than bust.

Obviously it’s probably wrong, but it seems to have been doing pretty well of late relative to the gfs.

Jokes are for the lolz not the cryz