WxUSAF

Not a flake on the gfs. Next.

Overnight runs were not enthusiastic about snow tomorrow. Euro still has a little for central MD, but the American and Canadian models basically have none except for the far eastern shore. 3k NAM has very little precip of any kind.

Snow on TV alert. Panthers at Packers

49-10 does not suck

I feel like I did see some chatter on Twitter about that in the last few weeks, but can't recall who/what/where. You could wag low solar for the 2009, but that doesn't jive for 2002, so... Every December has been warm lately and if the atmosphere is acting like a Nino, then going warm December is even easier. Question is whether it's wall-to-wall torch, or just averages out AN with some cold mixed in. Would be nice if we end November/start December on the AN side and then turn cold by mid-month when climo helps us more and more.

It was such a frustrating game to watch. The turnovers, defense getting sliced and diced, and just bizarre offensive play calling. Minnesota came out like it was the Super Bowl, PSU came out like they were playing Rutgers.

Yup. They've been terrible of late (see the predictions for this month) and were terribad last year when we had 3 months of KU pattern advertisements. Keep focused on the next 2 weeks and that's about all we can have any faith in.

Given that last December I literally didn't even see a flake of snow, it can only go up from there for this year, even if there are torchy days/weeks/full month. I had no expectation that November cross polar flow would lock in for 9 weeks, so not surprised in the least that's going to break down. But I like the trend to Aleutian low (also Ninoish) as well as the signs that the PV (trop and Strat) keeps getting beat up.

Webb's been plugging a warm December for awhile, but that’s because he’s showing that the atmosphere is behaving very Nino-ish, even if the SSTs are neutral/warm neutral.

Pulled off the rare midnight low

PSU with the big egg laying. Ravens better not follow suit tomorrow.

Seeing the 1hr time steps on the Euro, you can see that there still is a little wave along the front Tuesday which keeps the precip going as the cold air moves in and flips things to wet snow for central MD.

Euro has replaced our coastal low for next weekend with a 1040mb arctic high pressure.

GFS moved back toward that at 6z also. Better for @C.A.P.E. especially.

EPS disagrees FWIW. And Mike Ventrice notes that the Strat vortex will keep getting beat up

BWI recorded a -10F departure yesterday. That was the first -10F or greater departure from normal since March 7th. Since that day, there have been 42 days with +10F or greater departures, including 2 days with +20F or greater departures. A figured it was a lot, but holy sh-t that's crazy.

Airport lows: BWI 24 RIC 27 DCA 30 (lol) IAD 21 eta...BWI set a record low.

The 2019 First Freeze Contest has come to an end! DCA hit 32 early this morning. @yodaand @mappy have tied! Both had a departure of 14 total days. But this is America! The tiebreaker this year was summed total October precipitation at all 4 airports. @mappy went with a continuation of our dry September and only forecasted 8" total. @yoda went a little wetter with 12.26". But the real total smashed both those numbers, with 23.5" recorded. In this case, close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and the Mid-Atlantic first freeze tiebreaker! Which means @yoda wins by tiebreaker! @mappy obviously comes in 2nd place! @MN Transplant, who unfortunately had the poor luck of trying to rely on DCA to hit 32F before midnight last night ties for 3rd place with me, your humble contest organizer, with a total departure of 15 days. @Rhino16 rounds out the top 5 with a departure of 17 days. 2019 First Freeze Contest.xlsx

@psuhoffman and @40/70 Benchmark, is 89-90 on your analog list for QBO? Or PDO? I don’t believe the ENSO matches at all...

Ok that convo is over please and thank you.

Snowflakes in Columbia per my wife! Went outside to look here in greenbelt but nothing.

Gfs long range cold bias

Flurries in Harford county per family. I haven’t seen any

Chin up, DCA will probably stay above freezing the whole night somehow.

Can you get flurries from clear skies? Asking for a friend