WxUSAF

GEFS turns on the NAO and cranks it to 11 for the whole run

Good to keep in mind regarding the strat vortex split/warming/disruption is that last years was advertised and steadily pushed back for awhile, but it did happen eventually. And it doesn’t say at all how it will impact the troposphere on our side of the pole.

BWI is a tie per Tony Pann

IAD 19 BWI 22 DCA 26 Havent checked if any of those are records

I just saw the 324hr EPS posted elsewhere. Yeah, that's a real nice look for a winter storm, just maybe not in late November.

Bragger

Almost a deck dusting!

Real flurries in Columbia!!! I saw them and caught them on my tongue!

Haven't seen the EPS past D10, but I like the evolution of the pattern on the GEFS and the GEPS. Keep that AO negative and we'll be in good shape. Doesn't look as cold, but still probably seasonal on balance after D7.

My son saw a few flakes in Columbia around 5pm and I think I saw a few on the way home.

CWG forecast out https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/12/washington-dc-winter-outlook-near-average-snowfall-with-somewhat-milder-than-normal-temperatures/

BWI will have a T today officially

Flurries in Columbia per my wife

Overnight GEFS pummels the strat vortex with strong wave 1 hits. Not far off SSW territory actually. @tombo82685 mentioned on that other forum that there’s some historic linkage between the warmer MJO phases and SSWs. We’ll probably be in those phases in early December.

Can it snow at 50F? Asking for a friend

Staff meeting at flying dog Friday at 6. You’re buying.

@psuhoffman that’s a nice look on the Eps. I like how it’s been fairly insistent on keeping the PNA positive. That’s definitely a look that could produce.

WBAL shows the RPM on the weather segment. Looks nothing like any other guidance. But snowy!

The consistent Aleutian trough and Scandinavian ridge is nice for sure. Blue ball near the pole less so, but it’s way out there. Verbatim that’s a pattern that could certainly give us snow with a few more weeks of climo cooling temperatures.

Friends, With winter around the corner and Bob opening the December mid/long range thread, we the staff want to make a few things clear. We’ve lost some good posters over the last few years due to trolling, junk posting, whining, etc. and this is an effort to stop the bleeding in that regard. So, to keep the signal-to-noise ratio high, we’re going to do the following: 1. All mid/long range threads and storm-specific threads will be more heavily moderated. This doesn’t mean don’t post useful questions, this means don’t whine about lack of snow or try and make jokes in these threads. 2. Normal running obs and banter threads will operate as usual and moderate only normal forum rule violations. Remember you can quote a post and respond in another thread if you just have to snark about something. Thanks!

This weekend is looking pretty chilly. Maybe not quite as cold as Wednesday, but not far off.

Euro still gives me 0.1”!! Snow train baby HONK HONK

I’ll definitely have an entry but want to know how much November snow we have first

RGEM has flurries tomorrow evening LETS GO