As Tomer’s been tweeting, “torch” potential really isn’t there. Going to be some back and forth with temps, but not as shut/lower the blinds as it looked before
I’ve been dreaming about a major overrunning event like that for 7-8 years. Since that year we were tracking one in late December and then the cold air ended up squashing it to oblivion.
The looks D10-15 on the ensembles are not really +TNH, they look very much like a mod-strong Nino climo. But the extended progs all evolve that to a +TNH look into the end of the month and December. That would fit more with the background forcing
Not sure it’s either. I think it’s just subseasonal forcing like the MJO combining with factors like the warm water in the west Pacific producing this sort of look.
Happy hour looks a baby step closer again. Trailing wave is stronger and trough is more negatively tilted. Problem is the boundary layer. Temps still in U30s/N40 when there’s still some precip. Freezing level around 950mb.