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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. Can’t remember the last time we underperformed guidance in a warm advection day with a good amount of sun
  2. @winter_warlock I do agree that you need to back off the excessive non-value added posts. Some is ok. A long string is going to start disappearing.
  3. As Tomer’s been tweeting, “torch” potential really isn’t there. Going to be some back and forth with temps, but not as shut/lower the blinds as it looked before
  4. I don’t have @psuhoffmans photographic memory for light to moderate events lol. But I think it’s been awhile…
  5. I’ve been dreaming about a major overrunning event like that for 7-8 years. Since that year we were tracking one in late December and then the cold air ended up squashing it to oblivion.
  6. Still, the difference is just the near pick 6.
  7. Pretty thrilled about 24 first half points. But the defense…woof.
  8. That was a good stop. Hopefully get some momentum going now.
  9. Defense getting fucking torched worse than our winters lately
  10. 10/10 sunset aleet
  11. From @donsutherland1
  12. The looks D10-15 on the ensembles are not really +TNH, they look very much like a mod-strong Nino climo. But the extended progs all evolve that to a +TNH look into the end of the month and December. That would fit more with the background forcing
  13. Storm water ponds and parts of the creeks in my neighborhood frozen over. That’s certainly early.
  14. Not sure it’s either. I think it’s just subseasonal forcing like the MJO combining with factors like the warm water in the west Pacific producing this sort of look.
  15. Not speaking about this specifically, but it’s crazy to me how Nino-like the pattern is in 10-14 days according to the ensembles.
  16. Nope. Bottomed out at 22 and rose after midnight.
  17. 23 already. Teens finally tonight?
  18. Happy hour looks a baby step closer again. Trailing wave is stronger and trough is more negatively tilted. Problem is the boundary layer. Temps still in U30s/N40 when there’s still some precip. Freezing level around 950mb.
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