The setup for the weak system this weekend seems to look good, but that powerhouse 1017mb low in the Midwest just bullies the 1047mb high over New England out of the way
As Tomer’s been tweeting, “torch” potential really isn’t there. Going to be some back and forth with temps, but not as shut/lower the blinds as it looked before
I’ve been dreaming about a major overrunning event like that for 7-8 years. Since that year we were tracking one in late December and then the cold air ended up squashing it to oblivion.
The looks D10-15 on the ensembles are not really +TNH, they look very much like a mod-strong Nino climo. But the extended progs all evolve that to a +TNH look into the end of the month and December. That would fit more with the background forcing
Not sure it’s either. I think it’s just subseasonal forcing like the MJO combining with factors like the warm water in the west Pacific producing this sort of look.