WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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What the models are changing over the last couple runs is the look in the North Pacific. They’ve done this a fair bit over the last couple weeks and most of the flipflopping is past D10. Conversely, with the trough out west, these runs also keep the -NAO going. But if that’s wrong and the trough does get dumped out west, then yes, we warm up. Trough west and -NAO can keep us somehow cooler than normal.
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Lol yeah, what am I supposed to be upset about with that run? The one day of AN temps next week ahead of a rainy cutter?
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EJ will be reaped by December 2nd
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lol weeklies
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HM’s teasing again
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
WxUSAF replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
You already busted at Richmond by three orders of magnitude -
Yup, GEFS mean definitely has had a cross polar flow look at the very end of the last few runs, with 12z being the clearest example. Got to keep the STJ going in tandem.
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Sunday-Wednesday of thanksgiving week is RIPE on the GEFS. +PNA/-NAO/50-50 and some subtropical jet action. Why can’t it be winter??
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Probably, because the NFL sucks.
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That Eps look a few days before thanksgiving is borderline pants tent...except November.
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Pouncey should get a fine and a game or two. Garrett should be out for the season.
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Potentially cold thanksgiving week if the GEFS and Eps are right with a piece of the tropospheric PV stuck under the NAO ridging. And potentially a stormy look bracketing thanksgiving as well.
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@Ralph Wiggum yes that’s the insanely anomalous open water area of the Chukchi
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Fringed
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Seems more than a little coincidental that the Chukchi and Bering seas are so open and there’s a strong tendency for ridging there.
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Super look on the GEPS. Seems biggest variability in the ensembles over the last couple days is in the Aleutian low and associated EPO and PNA domains. Yesterday’s 12z EPS looked a lot like that GEPS plot, then it weakened the ridging in the west coast and NAO region overnight. But even in a weakened state, the looks are still good. They’re varying between “solid/decent” and “pants tent”, which is a pretty good regime to be in. I wish it was December...
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@Bob Chill hell yes. Ggem has it too FWIW. GEFS washed out. Damn I want that look even like 2 weeks later. Hopefully these looks are a sign of things to come, but I am cautioned by last year when we were getting great looks at this time, and it did even result in a KU that we just missed! Then it all fell apart.
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GEFS also says lol warm up
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So much for next week being warm per GFS. Not arctic, but BN for sure.
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GFS has a nice vort pass next Tuesday/Wednesday for the region. Mid levels are cold but boundary layer still says November.
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Is it publicly available?
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Last week’s gfs only missed the hours below freezing by 80.
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DCA high of 39. Didn’t think they’d stay in the 30s. Impressive.
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Absolutely. If we see a look like that after December 15-20, then I’d be honking. Before that is pretty iffy, because that’s a seasonable to 5F below sort of look. Seasonable temps to 5 BN in early December are still above freezing for 18 hours a day or so.
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And it keeps chickening out on breaking down ridging in western Canada. It’s not a super cold look, but a consistently BN look with storm chances. Hope we see that into winter.
