WxUSAF

Love you too burgy

Still does.

D8 euro snow and nobody mentions it

So glad we’re getting the annual moderation philosophy discussion out of the way early this year

If we could get a wave along the tail end of the front that time could have potential. 18z teases that, but the wave is weak and sheared.

I’m wondering how much this Pac puke can kick is due to the conflicting tropical forcing signals. Maybe Eps keeps expecting the MJO to get into torch phases (and maybe the “true” MJO wave is doing that) and so expects a Pac flood, but as we get closer in time, that Indian Ocean standing wave still ends up being the tail wagging the dog and the MJO forcing itself is overwhelmed. Either way, it’s probably having the net effect of turning what otherwise would be a December torch into a fairly seasonal week or two with low, but nonzero snow chances if we can time up some cold air and a southern wave. Certainly looks Nino-ish with active southern stream. I’m cautiously optimistic we get a fun event or two this month.

Need some WAR or SE ridge during a big -EPO period or it’s just cold and dry. Take a look back at the pattern for last November’s early season snow. Big WAR, which is what brought the storm, but we had a good cold air source and so it snowed. Similar deals in 13-14 and 14-15. If it’s going to be a EPO dominated pattern, got to accept some cutters and cold/dry.

Haven’t seen Eps past D10, but inside of D10, there’s a clear trend to a stronger -EPO,-NAO, and -AO relative to previous runs and any pac puke flood gets cankicked to D10 yet again. Yes, we will have a 24hr torch next week with the cutter, but cold air is around. Eps actually quite a bit more bullish than GEFS with the -AO, while GEFS more bullish on -EPO.

See you In January

Euro gives areas N of DC a dusting overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.

36F with -RA in Columbia

I think many of us will see flakes at least tomorrow, which is better than last December when I literally saw none.

Ooohh that’s a fun sounding. Let’s do that.

Let’s goooooo Texans!

NAM wins this one. This is what it’s good for.

They will likely have already beaten most of the playoff teams by the time they get there

My son and I left just after halftime. He was soaked and cold. Rain soaked through 4 layers. The snow was mixing in during the heavier bursts. Total slush meteors. Probably saw them only because I was like 200 feet above field level

Snow mixing in at ravens game:

3k NAM looks pretty good for snow showers tomorrow and maybe accumulation for northern 1/3rd of the subforum in MD

Hope you’re right. Non deluge would be much preferred.

Monday and Wednesday could have snow tv for some in the region. Friday/Saturday storm would be interesting with a better airmass or January climo. After that, hard to say, but doesn’t look like a shut the drapes for weeks for sure.

No, euro actually has snow showers for the far NW areas. WEDNESDAY

Gfs has snow showers early Wednesday.

That’s a REALLY nice look on the Eps long range. Probably best I’ve seen in the last 5-7 days. Seems what the models are most unsure about is where that NPAC trough sets up. Aleutian low or GOA. Difference between them produces a nice +PNA or a Pac puke flood. I imagine a lot of that is due to them having trouble with the tropical forcing, but understanding that is beyond my pay grade.

Makes sense whoever you are