WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Good thing you live on the side that usually wins?
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Euro, gfs, and GGEM all giving me “wait for the storm after the storm” vibes for D11-13. Next weekends fail storm rotates into the 50-50 zone, wave breaks, pops a transient -NAO, and it’s game on.
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If I were to guess, I’d say the GEFS is rushing that Scandinavian ridge retrogression. I’d also guess that the pacific ridge will be closer to the coast.
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Ha, was just looking at that. We would want that NAO if the Pacific looked like that for any length of time. But it seems this year, the Pac flood is always more than 10 days away and the Aleutian low/EPO ridge pair shows back up.
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GGEM’s got the frontal wave snow and a clipper a day later too! Wes jackpot! Hoffman fringed
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@Bob Chill and @psuhoffman agree strongly with both your last posts. Looks like we’ll have chances after next weekend if it doesn’t work out, but the fast flow doesn’t encourage long track storms.
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No, gfs shows snow for us. Issues with the soundings and maps not jiving pending. How much accumulates is another question. For now let’s focus on getting that front through with enough energy hanging back to generate some more precip.
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More and more looks like northern stream shenanigans want to mess up next weekend. Also means things are really complicated and we won’t have anything certain for awhile.
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Gfs soundings on TT look really weird. Somethings not right when the maps say it’s snowing. 20C dewpoint depression at 750mb with precip??
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I’d be happy to give you a black tag, but the boss has to do that
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And for some reason, @mappy, @H2O, and @Bob Chill don’t have green tags still. @stormtracker I am willing to generously reduce my ample wages to help pay their salaries.
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^excellent! At the moment I’m feeling reasonably confident of my low bar for December having a chance of clearance: 1. Less than 3F above normal 2. 1-2 accumulating snow events 3. No 60F within 3 days of Xmas on either side
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Ggem has gives us snow from the Wednesday frontal wave. Gfs does for the N+W folks as well. Getting there. Issue I’m seeing right now for next weekend is that the models are picking up on a northern stream shortwave moving into the Midwest at the same time we want our storm. That both pushes the high pressure out faster and some, like the euro, try to phase it in which pulls the storm west. Still a very long way to go so things will change.
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Very long range, one feature to maybe keep an eye on is the poleward oriented ridge over the Urals that Eps and GEFS show well established by D10. GEFS retrogrades it toward Scandinavia by the end of the run. This might be what HM is cryptically referring to as the next -NAO precursor.
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When we actually get snow from these, it's not really anafrontal. The nomenclature gets a bit muddled. It's really a weak wave along the front. And from those, we get snow fairly often. A wave along the front is what we're really looking for.
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18z GEFS again more bullish on the anafrontal snow chance it seems.
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Another website with some good free Euro charts. A couple different ones than pivotal. https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf®ion=usa&chart=gh500,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=120&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0
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CWG snowfall contest: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/05/how-much-snow-will-fall-dc-this-winter-you-tell-us/
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Yeah, I see that now. Fun to have a discrete window to track, even if the rug will probably get pulled on us by Sunday.
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That’s a pretty nice look. If a piece of that Baffin Island vortex can reinforce some confluence and high pressure to our N and NW (it’s already there to our NE) were getting in a good spot.
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Webb is onboard. The point of this is that a more southern stream only storm is less likely to get pulled inland up the TN valley or Apps and rain us.
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To me, euro at 192hrs looks textbook classic for a I95 snowstorm except for the look over the Midwest. Bring a bit more high pressure over the lakes and plains and don’t have the northern stream wave try and phase in and it’s an absolute mauling.
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Am I missing something when people say the shortwave hits Cali in 3 days? That’s the shortwave for the cutter and any possible anafrontal activity. Shortwave for next weekend doesn’t look like it comes onshore until like 5.5-6 days from now. Speaking of the anafrontal wave, euro has it clearly but quite far south.
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Haven’t seen it yet, but @tombo82685 saying GEFS is liking the anafrontal event more this run.
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GGEM has an even goofier setup than the GFS if that’s possible. I think right now we have an idea of the players that might/could/probably will be on the board. An arctic high and a strong southern stream s/w. That’s a good mix for a starting position. Lots of details to work out on positions and relative strength.
