WxUSAF

Despite that, by my calculations 0.2/0, December 2019 is now infinitely snowier than December 2018.

In addition to a shift south, a clearer trend on the gfs over the last 24hrs is for a faster shortwave. I think that’s a good trend for us as it keeps it closer to this weekends storm and therefore closer to the cold air that storm brings in.

12/11: 0.2" Losing to @C.A.P.E. and @H2O, how embarrassing.

I think that perception is mostly a combination of confirmation bias and the fact that even in snowy winters, most of our winter precip falls as rain.

Same. Often seems off on its own. But at least by numbers, a euro-ukie blend solution is probably hard to beat at D5.

What time will the #snowtrain hit my house?

Looks like the I95 split hinted at by the euro and NAM before last night did occur with jackpotville locations around 1” and a secondary max of about 0.5” SE of the urban corridor. Biggest issue was precip dried out generally.

Based on pics my wife sent and nearby spotter reports, probably only 0.2” in Columbia.

At the top of the hour, SPC mesoanalysis put the 925mb freezing line from DCA-Annapolis and then NEward. 850mb SE of that.

Have no idea if this was expected, boom, bust, or whatever, but I'll take it to assume the HRDRPS was right all along

55 with light rain in San Francisco . 42 with light rain at home.

That’s sleet and rain that you hear

#FreeTrace

I love these shutout patterns where we’re tracking snow threats in the short, medium, and long range at the same time.

I do hope McSorley gets in sometime the next few weeks. And I’ll happily trade next week’s storm for the pre-Xmas HECS.

In case anyone is wondering, post obs and radar hallucinations ITT

3” for @psuhoffman and 0 for DCA. That about covers it.

That’s good to hear at least. You’d think that 50-50 and NAO should support enough confluence aloft to hold some cold air around initially. But we want that TPV to stay away.

It just shows we have something to have worthless discussion about! Think of the worthless discussion we'd be having if it was 60 every day!

Reading elsewhere, apparently EPS shows this with a fair number looking like the GFS. But that^ NAO and 50-50 do look good.

If I had to wager, the big wildcard for next week is that TPV location. Sure, subtleties of where the 50-50, cyclonic wave-breaking forced -NAO, and shortwave positioning will matter, but I think that TPV location is the most likely make or break piece on the chessboard. Move it too far south and if a piece of it phases in, that would tend to pull everything to the NW. I suppose if more of it ends up in the 50-50 low or over Hudson Bay that could even produce a suppressed scenario (although I'd put that at least likely). We want it to stay out of the way up there in Nunavut.

Euro Kuchera says congrats on your 3”.

It’s not just sleet. It gives freezing rain like a 20:1 ratio.

Canadian models are suggesting 1 primary frontogen band along I-95 more or less. American suite and Euro suggest 2, one NW and one SE of I-95.

GFS has been doing these epic D10 arctic highs + southern Plains ice destruction a few times already. Maybe it eventually actually happens?