WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Tropical forcing progression supports the evolution of the Pac ridge like what the GEPS shows. The current MJO wave should progress toward the dateline which are cold phases for us. This pattern shown by Ventrice supports a cold eastern conus. Especially if the forcing NE of Australia is centered nearer or just east of the dateline.
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@mappy setting expectations low so she can be “surprised” when she has over 2” and DCA has rain.
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Euro looks solid (by this storms standards). Much juicier storm relative to 0z.
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ALL IN
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MJO forecasts always have a bias of killing the wave off too quickly. That strong of a wave with steady eastward progression won’t suddenly die in phase 6.
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Lots of 1 step forward 1 step back on the long range ensembles. It’s clear nothings happening for awhile. Hope for a Feb 15 level turnaround.
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GEFS goes ape sh-t on the Scand ridge and starts around D10 so not too far out in fantasyland. EPO also teaches poleward through AK. Still not a great pattern but could be close to a workable one by the end if it worked out that way.
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I had 7.2” from that event
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I had just over 3” from that.
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Getting the Scand ridge pumping is good in a couple ways: 1. Can retrograde into the -NAO domain/extend over the pole 2. Combined with a strong WPO/EPO ridge, that's a good wave 2 hit to the Strat PV and can be a precursor to a SSW
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It’s a game changer
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Euro was apparently nearly on its own relative to its own ensembles the last couple days too in regards to that storm.
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Euro totally caved on the weekend thing.
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Yeah boundary layer is torched, but a stronger low could help that. Timing between the northern and southern stream lows as well.
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Gfs wants none of what the euro has for the weekend, but is close for next week’s chance.
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Impromptu January contest: Which is higher for each DC/Baltimore airport: Days in January reporting thunder. snowfall rounded to nearest inch. Alternatively: Rainfall rounded to nearest inch. snowfall rounded to nearest inch.
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2020 starting off the decade the way most of it will likely be spent: unseasonably warm.
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If you believe the MJO forecasts, we get a strong wave that emerges in the torch phases in 7ish days, but the forecasts have it propagating eastward and it should reach phase 7 at least by the 3rd week of January. If that happens it would shake things up. Phase 7 in January is workable for us.
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Looks like ignoring it and is back (continuing?) with the “it was cold today in Siberia! Take THAT libz!”
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Looks more shortwave than longwave in that. The Pac ridge still supports the mean trough axis along or even just west of the west coast.
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Don’t know about after D10, but I like the Eps longwave pattern from D8-10 better than the GEFS. Deeper okhotsk low pumps a larger WPO/EPO ridge which gets the trough axis over NA better for us. Also a weaker TPV (and somewhat split) on the Eps as well as a stronger Scandinavian ridge.
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@Bob Chill, not sure if this is the evolution the GEFS is picking up, but I think there’s a window for frozen from around the 5th through the 10-11th. Seems the Eps and other runs today support a cold shot in that window. Best snow shot is probably as that cold air lifts out. Maybe a smaller chance on the front end of the cold air, but best chance probably at the end. Way too far out for any details, but maybe GEFS is showing that general potential.
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Wow, that's a rough look at D15 on the EPS, @psuhoffman. I just saw the D10 and thought that looked pretty workable actually.
