WxUSAF

Looks like as soon as Radar returns reached you

I told the kids 1-2”. If I had to put a O/U on it, would probably go 1.7”.

I love when LWX says such filthy things

I’ve been thinking of that storm today. Was mid/upper 40s ahead of precip and precip started as snow IMBY.

There were some lightning strikes in E TN this morning

Elkins WV reporting 1/4mi +SN

4” soil temps are practically body temperature

hmmmm

Take comfort in knowing your sacrifice benefits the greater good. i.e., snow in my yard

All hail the king! Let’s do this.

Tale as old as time, song as old as rhyme, weenie suicide!

29/21

Don’t forget you have to act surprised tomorrow

^that colder wave that goes through is probably a function of heavier precip dragging cold air to the surface plus full wetbulbing.

This snow threat and this weekends torch have been advertised by the ensembles from very long range. Like 12 days plus. Pretty damn good.

I'm glad the models are recognizing that at short range. Leeetttt'ssss goooooooo

It looks like only surface is near or above freezing while snowing. Column is good. Recall March 2018 and that was March 21st.

Yes, if it's a largely sleet event maybe. I don't have the photographic memory for T-2" events that @psuhoffman has, but I recall some slop storm from the last couple years that looked super marginal on temps. 10:1 was like 2-4", but the snow depth maps were all like 0.1-1". I was hedging pretty hard on the snow depth maps, and the spotter reports ended up mostly like 1-2". Which I think was pretty close to Kuchera. Kuchera seems like a pretty good call in a marginal snow or rain scenario. Sleet does complicate a bit.

If the NAM is right, it's.a 4-hr long beatdown. Probably not right, but all the guidance today seems to suggest at least 1-2 hours of solid rates. It's early January fercrissakes. Yes, near-surface temps are a bit warm, but the column is perfectly cold.

I literally can’t recall a single event where the snow depth map was the best verifying forecast product. Yes 10:1 isn’t always good. Kuchera seems to be in the right sort of ballpark if there’s any precip type or temp issues. Tomorrow isn’t THAT marginal unless you want to take your spotter reports from on the asphalt of the beltway.

Tropical forcing progression supports the evolution of the Pac ridge like what the GEPS shows. The current MJO wave should progress toward the dateline which are cold phases for us. This pattern shown by Ventrice supports a cold eastern conus. Especially if the forcing NE of Australia is centered nearer or just east of the dateline.

@mappy setting expectations low so she can be “surprised” when she has over 2” and DCA has rain.

Euro looks solid (by this storms standards). Much juicier storm relative to 0z.

ALL IN