These are tough. I think I’d also go with Xmas. Haven’t ever experienced that in Maryland. As for the first question, it’s basically a super 13-14 winter vs super 15-16. Think I’d go with 13-14.
The Scandinavian-Greenland ridge pattern this fall and progged going forward is nice. Maybe we can hope for some occasional NAO help? If we can couple it with transient Pac ridging we could get some windows.
Usually they do down well, but the timing can be a bit variable and the QBO as a whole has been a little funky the last 4 years for whatever reason (climate or other).
I'm leaving things messy this year. I'll mulch or rake the leaves on the grass, but I'm leaving the leaves in my mulch beds. Good habitat for overwintering insects. Hopefully will also save me a bunch of money on lawn bags.