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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
  2. WxUSAF
    An evolution that seems plausible based on long range guidance would be: 1. 1-2 strong cutters wave break during the Dec 29-Jan 2 period. This builds the NAO ridging. 2. They being in a cool, but not cold airmass for Jan 3-5. 3. Their remnants park in the 50/50 zone and provide confluence. 4. Another s/w approaches with a good track and acceptable airmass. 5. Profit
  3. WxUSAF
    Euro has snowtv for central MD and NoVA Friday. Temps too warm though for accumulation. That IVT feature looks really nice for Philly area and Jersey…
  4. WxUSAF
    Yes. This I like.
  5. WxUSAF
    Gfs kinda has this at the end, but I’d expect one or even a couple really wound up cutters around NYD that helps reset the pattern toward a more favorable configuration. If we’re lucky, a proclivity for big precip producers will continue after cold air returns.
  6. WxUSAF
    Monday morning low temp forecast: GGEM: low 0s (lol) Euro: low-mid 10s GFS: mid-upper 20s
  7. WxUSAF
    GGEM gifts central MD a white Xmas miracle
  8. WxUSAF
    I believe so
  9. WxUSAF
    NE MD pummeled!
  10. WxUSAF
    Two years ago Xmas eve had a low of 6 at BWI. BWI hasn’t had a high temp in the single digits in decades?
  11. WxUSAF
    Time for JB to start tweeting about how upper 30s are “still cold!” For Canada. In late December. Along Hudson Bay.
  12. WxUSAF
    lol GGEM near 0F Monday morning. GFS upper 10s/low 20s.
  13. WxUSAF
    Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday.
  14. WxUSAF
    All Hail Der Kaiser!
  15. WxUSAF
    After Friday-Saturday, there’s maybe a Hail Mary window right around Xmas. GGEM showed this last night. But otherwise, we’re shitting the blinds until first weekend in January I think. And agree with @psuhoffman that winter probably turns based on how much we cash in during January. I hold little hope for February and March this year given cool ENSO climo.
  16. WxUSAF
    Dang. Only icon gets it done, but overnight runs were a lot closer. On a different note, big disparity for post-Xmas torch potential. Euro/EPS seem to keep us wedged, so temps are AN but nothing I’d call a torch. Gfs suite doesn’t do that so we’d be popping some of those ridiculous +20F days potentially.
  17. WxUSAF
    Icon and GGEM both took a good step. Hard to imagine we get snow from the coastal, but I’m hoping we can get some snow from the primary before it loses its punch. Need some more south trends, but 12z moving that way.
  18. WxUSAF
    If the storm yesterday was 12 hours faster, most of the area gets 1-3/2-4”.
  19. WxUSAF
    Cold and dry-ish Niña periods are pretty normal historically. But yes, since BN periods are getting less frequent, it does hurt to let one go by without measurable snow to show for it. Even if it is December when we struggle to get much normally.
  20. WxUSAF
    I’m not greedy. Just want some festive snow on my Xmas lights. We’re going to have a BN December. That alone seems amazing. Would be nice to have more than a T of snow out of it.
  21. WxUSAF
    Friday snow chances are not dead btw. 6z EPS is a pretty decent look for D4-5 with an earlier transfer off hatteras. Euro AI also a better 6z run.
  22. WxUSAF
    Fog is really thickening up in Greenbelt. I’d say vis is 1/2mi at most.
  23. WxUSAF
    And it’s crazy that he’s got MVP competition
  24. WxUSAF
    Big cold high for CAD with WAA precip is definitely a positive bust potential setup
  25. WxUSAF
    Light rain and 38. Guess there’s a chance I get a brief flip with heavier returns but not holding my breath.
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