WxUSAF

Starting met winter off right with a midnight high!

Winter 20-21 motto: It can’t get any worse, right?

Ha, so close.

1.36" total rain

^yeah, that's straight up pretty gorgeous. Haven't seen any 12z MJO-related products, but on the face of it, it seems to contradict with a respectable wave moving through phases 3-6. But, the MJO isn't the only factor and isn't alway the dominant factor so who knows? I hope its right, because that's the best H5 pattern we've had for snow in a couple years.

12z EPS 500mb pattern looks quite nice heading toward mid month. Not seeing any signs of MJO phase 3-6 returning a Nina-like pattern yet. -AO (--AO?), -NAO, -EPO, +PNA. Trough axis over the eastern Plains/MS valley. With any "good" pattern advertised at range, it doesn't mean we will score. But it means we at least have the CHANCE to score. When we have some SE death ridge and/or a blue ball over AK, it's a shut the blinds pattern and there's no chance. The pattern going forward, starting tomorrow really, and at least going through the ~14th (assuming things stay more or less the same) offers CHANCES. Some years we maximize our opportunities and others we really miss on. Jan '16 was our one good window that year and we maxed it out. The last few years, we've mostly not hit on our opportunities. Hopefully this year we can.

Amazing what a -EPO can do. GEFS has all of Canada above normal at 850mb on Dec 10 and then all below normal by the 15th.

Gfs and last nights para-gfs are really close to threading the needle for next weekends storm. Weak initial wave pulls in just enough cold air and then the second stronger wave gets really close to giving us precip with a cold column. I thought that was dead, but maybe not yet. Ggem is wrapped and inland up again. Also good support for a cold blast early next week and maybe some northern stream energy passing through.

At greenbelt today for work actually and just had thunder

Well, since we’re cancelling winter and/or December, renewed convection in phase 4-6 would be suboptimal.

Well, a horrific year at his new house is like 200% of MD climo. He knows he will see snow several times. We have to assume that every time it snows here may be the last time ever.

Lol Phin is like New England Ji now

After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good. -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like.

Paul Roundy apparently saw this Nino-like period coming based on his MJO-based sub seasonal forecasting. He’s expecting a Nina-like pattern with a SE ridge for later in December, but has that evolving into a -NAO in January.

As @Bob Chill always said (btw, he needs to get his ass in here), most of our events pop up under the D6 time frame. Rarely do we have a long tracking event that's picked out at D8-12. 13-14 winter was notorious for events that showed up around D4-5.

31 and frosty

Ugh...I was being nice and mowing the common space in the center of the culdesac. It has a sewer cover. Never had a problem before but I must have gone on just the wrong angle.

I don’t either. Today however, my mower blade hit a manhole cover and broke the bracket holding the blade. So...will have to fix that before the spring.

Speak for yourself Mr. 70 feet ASL

I also did a final mow of my lawn and mowed it short. Those 0.1-0.3” events are gonna look NOICE on my lawn this winter.

Looks good on these maps even though Maryland is like one pixel

Thanks!

There is some very confused species of cherry tree around me that is partially blooming right now

Definitely some flurry chances Tuesday evening it looks like. West side of the high slopes could get something measurable with some luck perhaps.

Dry tinder-like trees is why I cut mine fresh and wait until December to do it. Usually it’s alive through Christmas at least.