WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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???? Looking good to me
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GGEM incoming
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Yup, all part of the same process. We don't want the HP outrunning the low. Want the HP on top of the LP like a hat. Maybe a bit ahead of the LP.
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GFS evolution is just textbook for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. Gorgeous. Look at how it's trended with the cold push out WEST over the Plains. Follow the 522 or 528 height lines in this gif. That push keeps the primary low from amplifying to our west. It can't get north, so it stays weak until it transfers energy to the coast. THIS IS WHAT WE WANT. This is nearly as important as having cold air in place east of the mountains.
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Every model run is basically this
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Good to hear! Are they going to output what SLR they're calculating as well as the accumulation? That way we weenies will just adjust upward
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I've always found those to be low, even in marginal situations, but they're going to be closer than those 10:1 wxbell maps! Everyone has to keep normal Mid-Atlantic marginal event rules in mind here. Elevation STRONGLY favored. Rural N/W areas favored. White rain likely for a time, even in places where accumulation happens. That it might touch 60F Sunday doesn't matter much.
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I'm pretty sure WxBell assumes 850mb temp below 0C = snow In this very marginal situation, that's going to give a really bad impression.
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WxBell snowmaps continue to be lol-tastic
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Strength and orientation of the confluence is key. We want it to be somewhat suppressive so it doesn’t give the primary low room to amplify to our west.
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Just from looking in the NE subforum, 6z EPS has a nice low position at 144hrs. Quite similar to 6z GEFS at the same time. That's all I've seen though.
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Very frosty 30F
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High pressure on the GFS just keeps getting colder. I like that. Can't get the handoff to the coast right yet, but it's not far off. I'm good with the run overall.
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Here's the sounding as the precipitation is just brushing DC. Wet-bulb 0C altitude is around 950mb. IF you had some heavy precipitation and could wet bulb down, that's probably some slush bombs, etc. Airmass is pretty crappy, but the thread-the-needle possibility is there, particularly for the northern burbs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2020121100&fh=90&lat=38.94&lon=-77.04&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular
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Yes, talk dirty to me
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Snow is srs bizness Hi, you must be new here. Welcome to the mid Atlantic!
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Meh. Looks worse than 12z as far as scatter, low track, and OH valley primary. Not bad, but 12z was gorgeous.
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Tend to agree. Probably a glancing blow but something. That precip map shows you need heavier precip and dynamical cooling to get some snow. Timing of the shortwave relative to the cold air is also key. Want things a little slower. Seems HH euro did that.
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My biggest fear is that this becomes a Pa north storm cause low cant get organized in time I mean, it’s a much higher chance of being a PA north storm. But could also hit us at the same time.
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Jeez, talk about boom or bust. What is producing those big snow events?
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lol I thought that was Wednesday. That looks nice.
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That makes sense. Were they also a little slower?
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Euro and icon were similar at 12z. Will be interesting to see how 18z follows.
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Gfs and euro both have 850 cold enough but below that is pretty torched.
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WPC hazard plot highlights the area for “Heavy Precipitation” on the 16/17th. Heavy rain southeast of DC/Baltimore, heavy snow for PA mountains up into western and northern New England.
