WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Thanks @psuhoffman and @MillvilleWx for the analysis! Onto hopefully happy hour
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Hopefully the over amplified bias is playing by with the EPS as well.
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Euro looks quite nice to those of us who accept that this is very likely going to mix. I want that CCB.
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Euro a little weaker and a bit south vs 0z.
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6 pack of corona light
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Crazy uncle shows up to the party late with generic chips and salsa
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Definitely seems likely you all get on the board with an appetizer.
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50mi wobbles are well within the noise even down to t-24hr. All in all pretty consistent. Hopefully it’s consistent for good reasons lol.
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I’m selling on those kind of totals due to the speed of the storm. Ggem with like 5-10 hours of 2”/hr rates? Doubtful. Maybe our west where ratios could be better.
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Lol I just don’t see how you get big accumulations Monday. Even for you M-D line folks, this seems like 5:1 ratio slop. And the moment it lightens up its back to rain and melt. Hope I’m wrong. I’ll hope for some festive white rain while watching mondays 12z euro.
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There’s always banding features. Tuesday is the time to analyze those. N/W always favored.
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Ggem has the low track like right over OCMD. Assumption with a track like that should be mixing to the fall line AT LEAST. Gfs actually has the more classic 50mi east of OCMD track for an all snow storm.
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Catching up. Gfs and ggem are classic mid-Atlantic MECS. Not much to say. Verbatim ggem gives me 11” in 6 hours Wednesday afternoon. As much as that would thrill my weenie soul, I’ll take the under and hope I’m wrong. Snow starts in under 4 days...stay on target.
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Dang like 1.5” of rain or more on gfs. Juicy.
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Lol another gem
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The late night crowds anthem
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Going to be a noticeable difference almost certainly unless the ggem scores a coup here.
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100%
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Yup. This is the best December pattern in years. Well, we had an excellent pattern 2 years ago and RIC on south cashed in.
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Totally different on the front range dude.
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lol for all the reports of New England kumbayah, there’s a metric shit ton of reported posts from there always.
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I didn’t want to bring it up...but 4” soil temps are torched. White rain inbound. Take the snow depth product and divide by 5 if you want a realistic accumulation estimate.
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lol it’s a different world. A lot of us were pretty casual feeling by mid February 2010 and 2014. Otherwise? Naso much.
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Yup. We’ve got nice consistency right now and the ensemble range of outcomes is narrowing and improving. But still at a range where rug pulling is possible. Monday 0z runs are my mark on the wall. Get it there and then we should be down to mesoscale features.
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Sub 1/4mi vis fog
