WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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And HoCo caved…
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Well thankfully that disaster is avoided at least. Down to 26 earlier. 27/18. HoCo grew a backbone. No early dismissal today (yet).
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30/16. Don’t pull any rugs out while I’m asleep.
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Solid dusting north of DC for the hrrr
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38/16
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Warnings and advisories issued. Warnings up for all of MoCo and HoCo. Advisories for everything north/east of them.
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3-4” mean focused on that D10 period. GEPS looks close to EPS on H5, but weaker surface reflection. GEFS farthest off, but still not a bad look.
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I think our zone (SE Howard) is probably the farthest north they’d consider upgrading at this point?
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Nowcast/obs thread now? Or before 0z?
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3 globals really aren’t that far apart at H5 for next week. Subtle placement and strength differences results in a MECS to clear and cold. I’d expect ensembles to be pretty lit up?
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Euro has the @psuhoffman Storm. Big dog.
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Euro with the relative save for folks north of DC
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Falls apart of course. Vort gets lost in the southwest. But setup was there.
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Not sure if it’s gonna do it, but gfs has a very nice H5 look heading into the @psuhoffman storm
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Looking at Pivotal maps, maybe not. TT was tricking me. It’s basically M/D line.
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Well, looks like GGEM maybe has 1” north of DC Wednesday afternoon/evening? More for mountains. GGEM has a brutal gradient north of DC for precip tomorrow though.
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I’m not believing in this Wednesday evening snow until I see some other guidance show it
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Yeah 3-6/4-6 seems right. Less than 1/6.
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Ooof. Northern edge gradient is not kind.
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Hrrr gets temps up to upper 30s/near 40 tomorrow. Hope that’s wrong.
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Icon is north from 6z and 0z. Not sure it matters since it’s the icon
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If it was different from the globals in track, precip totals, etc. I’d probably still be a little skeptical at this point? But it’s not. I think it’s been steady and in line with the globals so I think it’s very much worth factoring into forecasts.
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3k is basically better for everyone vs last few runs. Would be a big win if it verified.
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3k soundings look nice for metro areas. Comes in hot and heavy. Ripping in the 5-8pm window.
