WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Nice place for us.
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Every model, even the GFS, has this baggy area of low pressure stretching from onshore to well offshore as it approaches and pass our latitude. Where the "L" gets put on the surface map isn't always a fine science. All comes down to how convection plays in (we really won't know this until tomorrow or Wednesday) and where the surface low starts to get stacked with the upper level energy. That later detail just keeps wobbling just onshore and just offshore.
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I really, really want that CCB. Seems like the front half of the storm is pretty well set for MBY. 3-5" of snow+sleet.
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Seems like we've seen 0z/6z euro runs bump NW and then 12z runs move SE. All-in-all, these are ultimately small differences, even if this was 24hrs before start time, but it obviously makes a big difference to most of us in snow totals.
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Good thread from @tombo82685 on Twitter. I wonder if the weaker s/w is a reflection of more complete sampling now that it's onshore?
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40N/70W is the classic location from the KU book for major east coast snow storms. That's past our latitude, but when it's at the benchmark a storm is usually about to hit NYC and Boston.
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After 6z Thursday it really doesn't gain much more latitude. Just moves ENE out to sea. That's very nice for us. Better chance the CCB cranks overhead and then snows itself out as the storm moves away. Some of the runs where the CCB is much farther north into the Poconos and NY state had the storm moving toward the benchmark and farther NE.
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Ha, that little dot in eastern Howard County is the higher terrain near Howard High School. Gets up to 500-600' on that hill. That's like 2-3mi from my house as the crow flies.
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18z EPS has the surface low in exactly the canonical spot, ~50mi off OCMD, at 6z Thursday. Don't overthink things. Use the ensembles the way they're supposed to be used for, not agonizing over 5-10mi wiggles in 10:1 snow maps. Going forward now, we can start seeing mesoscale effects like thermal profiles and banding.
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Let's do this same thing again in a month with temps 5-10F colder please
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If there's any time to try and hold onto snow cover, it's 5 days before the solstice...
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Mt. Holly hoisted watches
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You just want all of us to see how you're in the 20"+ zone
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Oops, you accidentally left me off the list!
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He's still around some, but lives just across the PA border now.
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Present from @mitchnick. 18z GGEM liquid equivalent precip that falls as snow. @mappy jackpot, but all of central and north MD is solid. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=gemglb&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off
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84hr CIPS analogs to the 12z GFS. Some absolute classics on here: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F084&rundt=2020121312&map=thbCOOP72
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I was really confused at first. But the legend at the top works out. Goes Tr-1", 1-3", 3-6", 6-12" in the blues.
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This isn't bad I think. Gun to head, I'd probably say 5-10" for MBY. I'm pretty close to the boundary between his 6-12" and 3-6".
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Flagged as banter
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The New England piece of the airmass is definitely arctic. Dewpoints below 0F is a classic sign of that. For us, we have dews in the teens. That's a respectable polar airmass, but nothing super special.
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CAD being underdone is the one weenie rule that actually works for us most of the time. But keep in mind that’s for surface temps most, not warm layers aloft.
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What if, hypothetically speaking, you were like 3-5 miles from the fall line and, hypothetically, at like 375’ elevation?
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I’d say this 18Z Eps is the last run I’d weight as high as the Op. I’ve been saying 0z tonight is my benchmark and we look in tentatively good shape.
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Temp down to 52. 20F to go!!
