Ha, maybe a bit hyperbolic but I get your point. I am hoping they get the 7 seed so they can play the Steelers. If the Ravens are healthy, I feel really good about their chances.
Yeah, I said that about the 12z GFS as well. I don't buy the isothermal skew-t's it's showing. Think there's a much larger area of sleet between the snow and rain. And I think we're probably in it. Hoping we avoid much rain...
It is sssuuuuccchhhh a fine line for us. 12z was nearly identical actually. We're a long hike from heartbreak or happiness in one direction or another.
Yeah, that's the takeaway for me today. ~10am-4 or 5pm hopefully will look and feel like winter IMBY so I'll get a nice @Jebman Jebwalk and with some luck, maybe even exceed last year's total snowfall.
It's disappointing, but no guidance gives you and I nothing. I'd say you still have a pretty decent chance at WSW verification. Much less chance for me.
Yeah, WAA thump looks better for most of us. A lot like the mesoscale models. But then rain and not much after it pulls away because it's too far northeast.
Damn I’m glad my paycheck doesn’t ride on this forecast.
Gfs is definitely an improvement over 6z with the WAA thump. 0z sounding for MBY is isothermal JUST below freezing from 750-950mb. Then above below that. Verbatim that’s probably wet snow that’s very rate dependent. But got to believe there will be a more noticeable warm layer aloft like the NAM shows. So still thinking quite a bit of sleet. Staying all frozen with that low track would be pretty miraculous.
I mean, I was thinking a dusting-2” could be a better forecast for MBY potentially. 3K NAM and RGEM keep hope alive that I could exceed last years total snow (3.5”) from this storm.
RGEM has a nice WAA thump. Really nice by our updated standards for this storm. 2-5” for everyone including DC. Yes goes to sleet and rain, but adjust your standards people.
@high risk yup RE: sleet. 2” of snow, 1” of sleet, then another dusting-1” of snow sounds great at this point. Every weenie for themselves grabbing the gold chandeliers off the titanic.