WxUSAF

For the ~31st-1st threat?

Got a west based -NAO and a 50/50 and it goes to Chicago. The Pac drives the bus...got to get a little bit of help there.

Seems like the storm around New Years should be a chance for us. GEFS and EPS do not seem enthused though.

It’s there. Just not in the best place for us.

I’ll give it another couple days but I think the 28th storm is a rain event. NAO block at that time doesn’t look as west-based as it did several days ago, which allows the primary to cut far to our NE before transferring.

I kind of wanted the Steelers to win because I want the ravens to play them on wild card weekend. But it is fun watching them loose!!

Down and to the right. Look low in the southwest sky tomorrow evening around 530-615.

Yup, we got a quick view. Enough for everyone to get 1-2 looks before the clouds came back

Is this the HM version of woof?

Bummer. Clouded up quite a bit in the last hour. Was hoping could squeeze in a quick view of the conjunction.

Speaking of January, 12z EPS gets VERY close to a 10mb wind reversal in the Strat just after New Years, and apparently the latest Euro monthly keeps things rockin' through most of January at least.

I would say 240hrs is pretty damn close. Trough axis is a little farther west, but otherwise pretty good match.

Euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with a white Christmas

@DT_WXRISK and @MillvilleWx both onboard for the January 96 redux! Getting excited!!

SO. MANY. SHORTWAVES. Going to be a volatile forecast post-Xmas I expect.

Remember last weeks storm looked like a Miller B at range. Was taking the primary through the Midwest with a transfer to Norfolk area.

@SnowDreamer, look a few panels earlier for where the high pressure to the northeast of us there originates. It’s down along the SE coast! It’s a hot flaming garbage airmass, that’s why it’s rain for everyone. That high to the northwest is legit, but it hasn’t arrived in time. It’s a weird and very unusual evolution. And nine days out so I wouldn’t hold your breath on it.

Yeah, the pacific pattern is pretty meh going forward. Because of that, the blocking is mostly just trapping modified Pac air masses underneath. But the blocking gives us a lot of wiggle room to time up a transient -EPO and/or +PNA where we could score bigly. As @Bob Chill used to say, it usually takes 3-4 chances for us to score. Seems likely to me we get at least that many chances between now and ~Jan 2/3. I think something works out by then. Doesn’t mean Jan 96 redux, but with the blocking, potential is higher than usual for a major event.

Euro was really close D8-9. Has this weird frontal timing so it's rain for everyone, but just need to time the cold air a little more like the GFS or GGEM. Lots of chances post-Xmas.

Yeah, I think this might be the better chance for Xmas flakes. Hard to give the post-frontal snow a ton of credence when the GFS is on an island at D4...

This winter has already well past last year. Even before the late month HECS. Kids have had 5 days of sledding and snow play.

Go giants tonight!

Not sure what you mean. Looks like a clear triple phaser March 93 incoming.

Wow, I’m getting a drink to celebrate that happy hour gfs run!!