WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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2017 is the last December where it actually snowed here
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I appreciate this has been a polite discussion so far, but let’s end it now because I don’t think anyone’s mind is changing.
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What outdoor sports are left at this time? HoCo fields mostly are closed Nov 1 anyway. There’s a few turf fields that stay open longer.
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D7-9 EPS evolution isn’t one I’d ever turn my nose up at for a week+ prog. Cold air slides in ahead of the storm, but it’s close. Air mass ahead of that is hot garbage so need that northern stream low to get the cold air in. This was a big shift in the euro and EPS from yesterday which had a GGEM-like solution.
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2020-21 snowfall contest
WxUSAF replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Might have to do a late edit to account for our December 2-3rd MECS. -
Yeah, I don’t know if that SST pattern is unprecedented, but it’s pretty strange and unusual at least. I know DT was keying on that to think eastern US snowfall could be AN. Saw the CFS winter MJO forecast on Twitter this morning and it shows the MJO waves staying more in the Indian Ocean, which would be mostly favorable for us (phase 1-2). Maritime continent is the torch zone for us.
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Nearly all the CONUS below normal with Canada melting. Swing that eastern trough to an east-west orientation under that block and then bring through that low out west and BOOM!
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lol GGEM with freezing temps in the Everglades on the morning of the 3rd.
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I haven’t looked at it yet myself, but @tombo82685 says overnight EPS was best yet for early December.
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Only 0.04” overnight. Was hoping for more.
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Ravens are a mess
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Suppression risk?
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Dobbins looking strong today.
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Euro and GGEM both have major cold outbreaks D8-10. Sub freezing into FL with temps near 0 in the Midwest.
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Seasonal air in early December can work, but we have little margin for error. Need a good track, overnight helps, etc. If the PNA couples into the EPO domain, as the 18z gefs showed yesterday, we’d get some cold air moving south. Just takes time to flush the PAC puke out.
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Happy hour delivers and the runs not over yet! Anafrontal deals usually work well for us, especially at the beginning of December!
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We started some decorating today outside. I’m usually very anti-pre-thanksgiving Christmas decorating but yeah, 2020.
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EPS looks quite similar at that time.
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Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager.
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Return of December 5?
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Extrapolated 12z gfs lookin’ tasty!
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We’ve got “extreme weather bullseye” working in our favor
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JB2 forecast FWIW https://www.justinweather.com/2020/11/19/winter-outlook-2021-i-am-more-bullish-on-snow-for-part-of-it/
