WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Historically this is the moment the euro comes in with "what storm" and there's not even a shortwave.
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Somehow GGEM gets close with a very goofy 500mb evolution.
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Northern stream does kick it away a bit, but it's also weaker than previously shown so it gives the storm some room to amplify and give us a light event. All good trends today at 12z so far. And maybe offers a couple ways to win: 1. Northern stream phases in 2. Stronger southern s/w does it all alone as long as northern stream goes away enough
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Incoming on the Para also it seems...looks more southern stream driven without a phase, but northern stream is more out of the way
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Yeah, this was a cleaner evolution at 500mb. Less random s/w's to muck things up. A kicker still there though, yeah.
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Yeah, I don't now WTF that hot mess was. 500mb evolution was supportive of a coastal storm. Can't explain that surface solution.
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Yeah, GFS should be pretty good here. Much cleaner 500mb evolution through ~120hrs. Precip shield expanding quickly in the SE.
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Clippers, Miller As, Bs, or whatever. I just want it to snow.
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Never got cold. Low of 37
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Next week really seems to come down to the position of the Northern stream s/w's. If they are progressive and slide east, then the main southern stream s/w just gets washed out and the low either doesn't develop or is just a fish event. If they are weaker or phase into the southern s/w, then we have big dog potential.
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Mini mulch dusting. Would have tacked on a couple tenths if it was colder
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That's a nice signal on the 12z EPS, carrying over from 0z EPS.
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Heavy sleet+graupel shower right now
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Only 7 days away. What could go wrong with this setup?
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sure go for it
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@CAPE hates it verbatim, but it's a great run. No one should whinge about the r/s line at D7. 1'+ for the western DC burbs.
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Yeah, it's a phasing situation. Which opens the door to big dog potential, but it's a complicated pattern with so many shortwaves flying around.
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Oh baby, incoming on the euro
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Not sure if the euro is going to get there, but the 500mb look through 144hrs is MUCH improved over 0z. Much less sheared/progressive. Neutrally-tilted trough along the MS valley at 144.
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I think Friday is about forked. Euro moved back south. Congrats NC.
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Doesn't phase, so it's sloppy. Para has consistently showed a more sheared outcome vs. Op GFS.
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Sure, how about after 12z?
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500mb evolution is classic for a MECS for us. Phases and becomes neutral tilted near the MS Valley, gets negatively tilted thereafter. That bad boy is coming NW.
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Who wants vodka cold and frozen mud? "Cool" works perfectly if you want snow more than single digit temps.
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I totally sympathize though when I see the GFS do shit like this: A mid-January morning with ~520DM thicknesses and rain?
