WxUSAF

If you assume the GEFS is a similar evolution, and it looks to be, then you can see the end of the 18z GEFS has 850mb cold anomalies filling back in over the CONUS. 2m temps lag a bit, but generally the same idea. Once you cut off the PAC firehose and get some meridional flow from Canada, you’ll get BN temps eventually with that H5.

I’m 0.1” short of last winter Yeah, I think BWI was like 1.5” last winter and DCA was under 1”?

Next ~2 weeks aside (and there's still a chance of some frozen precip on Sunday/Monday), I think there are definitely more signs to be positive beyond that then negative. Doesn't mean this will end up being a memorable winter, but I don't see any signs that it's a repeat of last year/11-12/01-02/etc.

I think it's probably a situation where both are somewhat correct. In a smoothed ensemble mean, you often don't see sharp ridges or troughs due to orientation, timing, and other differences between each member. So even if all the members have a nice NAO ridge around a given time +/-, when you average them all together, it may just look like what you see in the long range ensemble mean or weeklies product. As @Ji said earlier, we actually haven't had a true NAO ridge yet. That can has definitely been kicked a bit, although it does seem like a real one will develop as we start January.

Basically, anticyclonic flow over a region is a ridge. When it's oriented in a way (east-west across Greenland and Baffin is ideal of a NAO for us) to disrupt the zonal flow it's a "block". @CoastalWx is talking about this in SNE also I see.

@tombo82685 was talking about that "NAO" block on twitter a bit. Specifically, high/AN heights in Greenland/Baffin vs. a true ridge in that area. Mostly what those weeklies maps show is high heights. Now that might mean there's a ridge there at times, but AN heights alone don't act as a "block". Here's the 18z GEFS showing a true NAO ridge: Now toward the end of the run is just AN heights through the Baffin Straight: Now to some degree, that's probably just the ensemble mean smoothing things out. A real NAO ridge will pulse and vary as waves break, etc, so that could be what ends up in the means at long range.

Saw it posted on another forum

Apparently that beautiful H5 look on the week 3 map gives us a +8F temp departure!? lol that’s pretty amazing

Nice. That week 3 map you posted is fantastic. I think week 3 has some skill per the metrics, although anything beyond that is pretty useless I think.

Apparently euro weeklies went straight weenie party today after being very Nina-ish up to this point the last 2 months.

6z para GFS has the follow up snow event. Looks very much like the euro for the entire next 7 days.

@psuhoffman that’s a nice look. Always a good thing if you can see the end of the bad pattern before it starts. Hopefully that look holds and doesn’t get can kicked. I have no feel for how the SSW might disrupt things.

Low wave number patterns are more common in winter, but such a dominant wave 1 is a bit unusual.

Wavenumber 1. 1 ridge and 1 trough around a latitude circle.

Colts lose and Ravens win!!

Steelers are total frauds. They’re going to get wrecked on wild card weekend.

Go Raiders!

High of 32 so first subfreezing day of the year

It very much does have bearing on our snow chances. And that’s the end of this discussion.

Feel free to spend some time with exhausted recycled arguments in the climate change sub forum

It means the climate is indisputably warmer now than it was 20, 30, 40, or 50+ years ago.

A SSW the first 5 days of January would translate to local effects the last week of January IF it couples to the troposphere and IF our side of the planet sees the impact