WxUSAF

Yeah, would be nice to get on the board in a clear way with that sort of look. Plenty of cold air around on those EPS charts so less/none of the issues with this weekends storm.

Yup. @ORH_wxman says it looks good as well in the NE sub forum.

Haven’t seen it yet, but HM is happy about it on Twitter so I’ll take that.

We’ve had three late November’s in a row where models looked good for early December. 2018 produced the huge SE storm that hit the wall at EZF. 2019 the rug got pulled out and it went to crap. We’ll see what happens this year. Like I said yesterday, I think we’ll have chances through mid December at least.

TT snow maps after 240h are buggy

That extra 100-200ft elevation pays off! Maybe I could squint a very mangled flake or two, but that line died too much. Needed a heavier burst of precip.

Just sprinkles here. 38F

Decent band of precip moving through MoCo near @Bob Chills house. Maybe bright banding from slushy flakes? Not sure it makes it over to my house...

Starting met winter off right with a midnight high!

Winter 20-21 motto: It can’t get any worse, right?

Ha, so close.

1.36" total rain

^yeah, that's straight up pretty gorgeous. Haven't seen any 12z MJO-related products, but on the face of it, it seems to contradict with a respectable wave moving through phases 3-6. But, the MJO isn't the only factor and isn't alway the dominant factor so who knows? I hope its right, because that's the best H5 pattern we've had for snow in a couple years.

12z EPS 500mb pattern looks quite nice heading toward mid month. Not seeing any signs of MJO phase 3-6 returning a Nina-like pattern yet. -AO (--AO?), -NAO, -EPO, +PNA. Trough axis over the eastern Plains/MS valley. With any "good" pattern advertised at range, it doesn't mean we will score. But it means we at least have the CHANCE to score. When we have some SE death ridge and/or a blue ball over AK, it's a shut the blinds pattern and there's no chance. The pattern going forward, starting tomorrow really, and at least going through the ~14th (assuming things stay more or less the same) offers CHANCES. Some years we maximize our opportunities and others we really miss on. Jan '16 was our one good window that year and we maxed it out. The last few years, we've mostly not hit on our opportunities. Hopefully this year we can.

Amazing what a -EPO can do. GEFS has all of Canada above normal at 850mb on Dec 10 and then all below normal by the 15th.

Gfs and last nights para-gfs are really close to threading the needle for next weekends storm. Weak initial wave pulls in just enough cold air and then the second stronger wave gets really close to giving us precip with a cold column. I thought that was dead, but maybe not yet. Ggem is wrapped and inland up again. Also good support for a cold blast early next week and maybe some northern stream energy passing through.

At greenbelt today for work actually and just had thunder

Well, since we’re cancelling winter and/or December, renewed convection in phase 4-6 would be suboptimal.

Well, a horrific year at his new house is like 200% of MD climo. He knows he will see snow several times. We have to assume that every time it snows here may be the last time ever.

Lol Phin is like New England Ji now

After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good. -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like.

Paul Roundy apparently saw this Nino-like period coming based on his MJO-based sub seasonal forecasting. He’s expecting a Nina-like pattern with a SE ridge for later in December, but has that evolving into a -NAO in January.

As @Bob Chill always said (btw, he needs to get his ass in here), most of our events pop up under the D6 time frame. Rarely do we have a long tracking event that's picked out at D8-12. 13-14 winter was notorious for events that showed up around D4-5.