WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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sure go for it
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@CAPE hates it verbatim, but it's a great run. No one should whinge about the r/s line at D7. 1'+ for the western DC burbs.
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Yeah, it's a phasing situation. Which opens the door to big dog potential, but it's a complicated pattern with so many shortwaves flying around.
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Oh baby, incoming on the euro
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Not sure if the euro is going to get there, but the 500mb look through 144hrs is MUCH improved over 0z. Much less sheared/progressive. Neutrally-tilted trough along the MS valley at 144.
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I think Friday is about forked. Euro moved back south. Congrats NC.
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Doesn't phase, so it's sloppy. Para has consistently showed a more sheared outcome vs. Op GFS.
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Sure, how about after 12z?
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500mb evolution is classic for a MECS for us. Phases and becomes neutral tilted near the MS Valley, gets negatively tilted thereafter. That bad boy is coming NW.
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Who wants vodka cold and frozen mud? "Cool" works perfectly if you want snow more than single digit temps.
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I totally sympathize though when I see the GFS do shit like this: A mid-January morning with ~520DM thicknesses and rain?
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Overrunning pattern. Feels like forever since we’ve had a good overrunning event but this would offer that potential. In this setup you need that bit of SE ridge or else we’re cold and dry.
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Lol you all are nuts. Overnight runs look pretty damn exciting to me. Lots of potential still for the 11/12th event with some clear ensemble support. Active pattern after that with lots of cold air. Euro even made a big jump north for Friday.
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Nice signal for next weeks event on EPS. Classic Miller A pattern. 6z gefs looks pretty similar (at 500 and surface, don’t know about snow maps ).
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We’re right on the border of snowfall changes
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Just saw 18z EPS Indies. Actually some solid hits for DC/MD. A number of coastal scrapers. Hmmm...
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Amazing gradient of 2020 precip anomalies across our area. From slightly BN near the M/D line to 15"+ AN from I-95 on south and east. Of course we experienced this happen, but cool to see it mapped
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ALEET ALEET Blue pixels over the mid Atlantic on the HH GFS.
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So far of the EPS, I’ve only seen the H5 setup for next week as posted elsewhere by @Wentzadelphia. I don’t hate it, that’s for sure.
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Goofy 500mb evolution on the euro. Close enough for D7-8.
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Yup agree on all points.
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Much clearer signal for the 11/12th on the 12z gefs than I’ve seen previously.
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My takeaway from the Op runs is that we have more chances past the 11/12th. Won’t have any clarity on those for awhile, but we’re certainly in the game.
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Northern stream doesn’t phase so it moves into the lakes and shears the southern stream while also ruining the BL. But it definitely moved toward a larger storm event.
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I think we can. Also can miss both. GGEM and para gfs both miss Friday. Para is still sheared for next week, but got a bit more organized. GGEM also took a big step toward a storm next week. Have to see how that run finishes. Lots of shortwaves flying around. Some can help and some can hurt. But we have chances.
