Not sure if the euro is going to get there, but the 500mb look through 144hrs is MUCH improved over 0z. Much less sheared/progressive. Neutrally-tilted trough along the MS valley at 144.
500mb evolution is classic for a MECS for us. Phases and becomes neutral tilted near the MS Valley, gets negatively tilted thereafter. That bad boy is coming NW.
Overrunning pattern. Feels like forever since we’ve had a good overrunning event but this would offer that potential. In this setup you need that bit of SE ridge or else we’re cold and dry.
Lol you all are nuts. Overnight runs look pretty damn exciting to me. Lots of potential still for the 11/12th event with some clear ensemble support. Active pattern after that with lots of cold air. Euro even made a big jump north for Friday.
Amazing gradient of 2020 precip anomalies across our area. From slightly BN near the M/D line to 15"+ AN from I-95 on south and east. Of course we experienced this happen, but cool to see it mapped
My takeaway from the Op runs is that we have more chances past the 11/12th. Won’t have any clarity on those for awhile, but we’re certainly in the game.
Northern stream doesn’t phase so it moves into the lakes and shears the southern stream while also ruining the BL. But it definitely moved toward a larger storm event.