3-5” deal verbatim. Lots of room there for a bigger outcome IMO. Euro nearly phases the shortwaves but then just kind of shears it out. A little odd. Glad something still showed that storm window after the rest of the 12z suite mostly made a list out of me.
Euro came NW relative to 0z. Still not much northern stream interaction. That’s what pulls the low north and expands the precip field for runs like the para-gfs.
Yeah I said I liked the 12th and then more of the 12z guidance shears it out. Lots of options coming up and feeling pretty good that we get one and probably multiple events.
It’s important to remember that all this awesome pattern we’re shoveling through at least the 20th and more likely the 25-30th has absolutely nothing to do with the SSW. Impacts from the SSW are only after then, if we see any at all (which I think we do).
If this pattern evolves as advertised and most of us get, let’s say <1” of snow, by January 25, that would be phenomenally bad luck even by our standards.
Because it’s basically a cutoff low. No northern stream involvement like the GGEM, so it’s just a bowling ball rolling across. This also means no CCB development so a very anemic precip shield.