WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I totally sympathize though when I see the GFS do shit like this: A mid-January morning with ~520DM thicknesses and rain?
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Overrunning pattern. Feels like forever since we’ve had a good overrunning event but this would offer that potential. In this setup you need that bit of SE ridge or else we’re cold and dry.
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Lol you all are nuts. Overnight runs look pretty damn exciting to me. Lots of potential still for the 11/12th event with some clear ensemble support. Active pattern after that with lots of cold air. Euro even made a big jump north for Friday.
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Nice signal for next weeks event on EPS. Classic Miller A pattern. 6z gefs looks pretty similar (at 500 and surface, don’t know about snow maps ).
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We’re right on the border of snowfall changes
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Just saw 18z EPS Indies. Actually some solid hits for DC/MD. A number of coastal scrapers. Hmmm...
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Amazing gradient of 2020 precip anomalies across our area. From slightly BN near the M/D line to 15"+ AN from I-95 on south and east. Of course we experienced this happen, but cool to see it mapped
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ALEET ALEET Blue pixels over the mid Atlantic on the HH GFS.
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So far of the EPS, I’ve only seen the H5 setup for next week as posted elsewhere by @Wentzadelphia. I don’t hate it, that’s for sure.
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Goofy 500mb evolution on the euro. Close enough for D7-8.
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Yup agree on all points.
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Much clearer signal for the 11/12th on the 12z gefs than I’ve seen previously.
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My takeaway from the Op runs is that we have more chances past the 11/12th. Won’t have any clarity on those for awhile, but we’re certainly in the game.
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Northern stream doesn’t phase so it moves into the lakes and shears the southern stream while also ruining the BL. But it definitely moved toward a larger storm event.
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I think we can. Also can miss both. GGEM and para gfs both miss Friday. Para is still sheared for next week, but got a bit more organized. GGEM also took a big step toward a storm next week. Have to see how that run finishes. Lots of shortwaves flying around. Some can help and some can hurt. But we have chances.
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It’s a classic MECS. Despite the gfs having a hard time realizing its January.
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New England vort is out of the way more. But Plains shortwave is faster and stronger and the storms closed low is weaker. Feels like a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation.
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Yeah, from my quick glance around, EPS definitely moved toward us. And the 11/12th event looked pretty good on some guidance
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Lol Texans blow it
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Wow, Texans tie it back up and probably going to OT
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A handful of days ago there was literally NOTHING on the models through D15. Now we’re getting some, but still ending up with lots of near misses or disjointed outcomes. Think we’ll see some monster digital snow occasionally at least starting this week. EPS had several big dogs.
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There’s a 1028mb high literally on top of us with sub 534 thicknesses leading into it. On January 12th.
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I’ll take that outcome for the 12th. GFS magically runs out of cold air, but I don’t buy that. Looks a lot like euro.
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That shortwave in Quebec just suppresses the flow. It’s moved about 300 miles south over the last 3 runs.
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I think you'd see s/w ridges move east behind troughs. And those ridges would get into the canonical position over Boise. It's a fabulous look.
