WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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GEFS has done well the last few months. Doesn’t mean it’s right here, but in previous years when the GEFS was on its own you knew it was going to cave eventually. EPS has caved to it several times this winter. The 17-20th period definitely has potential. Not much else to say now. Especially on a phone
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I’m not going to spend all my time moving posts back and forth so people need to do their best here
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This is for discrete storm threats between days 3 and 7. Pattern beyond D7 in the other thread.
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Ok we’ll try the thread split. Gimme a few minutes
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I don’t think a “pattern” vs “storm” thread would work well. But maybe a “inside 7 days” vs “beyond 7 days” could work?
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That look could be productive if there is some cold air around. GEFS has some solid cold then, EPS is more tepid. But I’m definitely concerned that our good window is fairly short and if we miss on the ~2-3 chances in that window...
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Kind of discouraging today. Not sure what else to say. Next Tuesday isn’t dead yet, but it’s on life support. After that, maybe a chance for something like flurries or snow showers with or behind the cold front late next week? Then we’re waiting for some cold air to actually arive and get a good storm track. That probably doesn’t happen until the 18-20th it seems. Now that pattern does look very good, but it’s 10 days out still.
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Temperature is below freezing. Didn’t know we did that anymore.
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I guess 18z Eps are much stronger for Tuesday? But maybe precip type issues for strongest members apparently.
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I mean pretty great name. But maybe crappy event. Maybe we call it the WxUSAF partly cloudy 40F January day?
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Damn, yeah. Need a burnt offering to appease the Lord if that doesn't snow on us.
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lol @psuhoffman I was just coming to post the 384hr 18z GFS. I know, I know, I feel dirty just typing that. But it is literally a perfect HECS pattern.
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Keep us on the path to righteousness my friend
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@Cobalt yeah that could very well be. Some basic domestic cold isn’t enough when we’re permanently 5F above “normal”. If we get some of this very meridional flow from NW Canada in another 10 days or so and we’re still only getting lows in the low 20s and highs near 40?? Sheesh.
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Good points. I still think we end up probably doing well this month. But the difference between bad/decent/great winters is how often we hit on marginal events. If we miss next week, that might be the 4-5th pretty good if imperfect looking setup since Dec 1 that we completely whiff on? That’s rough.
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Yeah I think it’s a bit of both. This is some bad luck, which hopefully will turn around in dramatic fashion. But we are definitely losing marginal events over the last few decades. We’re probably trading that for more frequent, if still pretty rare, KU-class events. The climatological rain/snow line is moving north.
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Possibly going a solid month with barely a flake when the AO is around -2SD, even with a meh PAC, is pretty breathtaking.
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Definitely more consistency across guidance and not in a good way. Not much phasing from the northern stream so they are shredders. Lots of time to change still with the complicated pattern.
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18-20th period looking good
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Exactly. West coast is NOT blocked.
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From what I’ve seen so far, i think the odds of SOME snow Tuesday have gone up. The odds of a big dog (10”+) have gone down. Flow is too fast and too positively tilted to ride up the coast. Still could be a widespread WSW level event though if things work out like the euro or gem showed last night.
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I feel like we tried that before and it ended up just getting muddled and mixed up immediately anyway.
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Yeah, looks like flurries at least. Surprising
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Nice look on EPS. Let's reel in Tuesday and I'll be much more zen about what happens after.
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At this point, my preference is whatever will get MBY out of "epic disaster" for a snowfall year by the end of January. I'd consider that ~>=10-12".
