WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I've always found those to be low, even in marginal situations, but they're going to be closer than those 10:1 wxbell maps! Everyone has to keep normal Mid-Atlantic marginal event rules in mind here. Elevation STRONGLY favored. Rural N/W areas favored. White rain likely for a time, even in places where accumulation happens. That it might touch 60F Sunday doesn't matter much.
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I'm pretty sure WxBell assumes 850mb temp below 0C = snow In this very marginal situation, that's going to give a really bad impression.
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WxBell snowmaps continue to be lol-tastic
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Strength and orientation of the confluence is key. We want it to be somewhat suppressive so it doesn’t give the primary low room to amplify to our west.
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Just from looking in the NE subforum, 6z EPS has a nice low position at 144hrs. Quite similar to 6z GEFS at the same time. That's all I've seen though.
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Very frosty 30F
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High pressure on the GFS just keeps getting colder. I like that. Can't get the handoff to the coast right yet, but it's not far off. I'm good with the run overall.
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Here's the sounding as the precipitation is just brushing DC. Wet-bulb 0C altitude is around 950mb. IF you had some heavy precipitation and could wet bulb down, that's probably some slush bombs, etc. Airmass is pretty crappy, but the thread-the-needle possibility is there, particularly for the northern burbs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2020121100&fh=90&lat=38.94&lon=-77.04&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular
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Yes, talk dirty to me
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Snow is srs bizness Hi, you must be new here. Welcome to the mid Atlantic!
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Meh. Looks worse than 12z as far as scatter, low track, and OH valley primary. Not bad, but 12z was gorgeous.
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Tend to agree. Probably a glancing blow but something. That precip map shows you need heavier precip and dynamical cooling to get some snow. Timing of the shortwave relative to the cold air is also key. Want things a little slower. Seems HH euro did that.
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My biggest fear is that this becomes a Pa north storm cause low cant get organized in time I mean, it’s a much higher chance of being a PA north storm. But could also hit us at the same time.
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Jeez, talk about boom or bust. What is producing those big snow events?
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lol I thought that was Wednesday. That looks nice.
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That makes sense. Were they also a little slower?
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Euro and icon were similar at 12z. Will be interesting to see how 18z follows.
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Gfs and euro both have 850 cold enough but below that is pretty torched.
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WPC hazard plot highlights the area for “Heavy Precipitation” on the 16/17th. Heavy rain southeast of DC/Baltimore, heavy snow for PA mountains up into western and northern New England.
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Yup. Just remember the calendar and adjust accordingly. But a really nice 12z suite. 6 days to go.
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Beautiful!! Only one left in Ohio. Strong storms off hatteras. Giggity giggity.
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^keanuwhoa.gif Based on the maps I’ve seen, Eps looks really really nice. Cold and with a more southern transfer to the coast than the Op. Getting tingly.
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Get that handover down by Norfolk or farther south and then we all cash in.
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Hi you must be new here. Welcome to the mid-Atlantic.
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SLP and 850mb storm track is actually a little better on the 0z euro vs this run. OH valley low hangs on a little longer with a slightly farther north handover and inland track at 12z. Just that high is more potent and we have a much colder airmass to start. Both are very small details at D5-7. Take the 12z high pressure and the 0z low pressure and that’s probably ideal for the metro corridor.
