WxUSAF

Ugh that drive ended with a whimper

18z para goes full on suppressed, cutter, suppressed, cutter. Warm rain for the D9 threat.

Looks like a perfect track juicy system in late January and GFS still struggles to get a cold column 200mi north of the low.

43F. What time will the snow start?

Pretty blue-ful 12z suite. EPS does look very nice for the D9-10 “window” and does seem to be staying around the 25-26th.

No

Damn, those NCEP programmers need to get it right! IF (precip over DC) THEN preciptype = rain AND T2M = 33

The can has definitely been kicked a few times on a possible snowy pattern. We can debate how much, but it’s definitely been kicked. From range, it looked like last nights cold front would usher in legit cold air and set the table for a productive period. Well, not so much. Yes the 7th and 11th January threats were “gravy” (we thought) before a great pattern, but those both failed for different reasons then we expected. Now it does look like we will at least get some chilly air starting in another week, but that tepid chill looks too suppressive. So we may have to wait until that relaxes, at which point that tepid chill could turn back to our standard 5-10F above normal.

The equinox storm? I got just over 7”.

Light blue at 234hrs! 8 weeks of blocking pays off

I did 3 days of that. Then Jan 6 happened. F that noise.

Feel better?

Not to be a jerk and honestly asking since I’m not paying close attention...but is it getting closer in time? Cuz those maps above are 256-264hrs away...

Meh? It’s been an unmitigated dumpster fire.

Not going to sugar coat that it’s January 15 and we’re still looking past D10 (and have been for over a week now) is pretty damn discouraging.

CWG out with a snow futility article today co-written by our own @Ian. Longest stretch on record now without a 0.5” or greater snow at DCA. 694 days. I think DC is also at or near the longest time without a low temp at or below 22F. Yes, some of this is bad luck. A lot is not.

Where is 5-10F below normal for lows? Nowhere around here anytime recently.

I’m really struggling with the incredible lack of cold air. I mean look at the para GFS D9-10. We get 516dm thicknesses, -10 to -15C 850 temps, and at the surface we get low temps in the mid 20s. Normal or above normal for late January!

I’m gonna slant stick the F out of anything that falls.

No. It has the identical inputs as the operational euro but run at the resolution of the ensembles.

Maybe everyone is big game hunting but seems like Saturday and early Monday snow shower potential is still there. 12z para gfs was more like 1” Monday while Op GFS struggles to get boundary layer temps below 40F. At night. In mid January. With 525dm thicknesses and 850 temps well below freezing.

You don’t need some 985mb low to get snow. Overrunning typically has weak ass lows that have a bunch of moisture.

It’s a D13 ensemble mean dude.

Cutters or southern sliders. It’s comical.

Depends if your mom can squeeze me into her busy...schedule