WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I mean, I think it's all linked? The shortwave coming out will pump heights out ahead of it, but the strength of the trop PV (and associated HP at the surface) is trying to squash it. If you look at 12z Friday as a point in time, yes, the GFS has the upper low farther west off the California coast, but Euro/EuroAI aren't *that* much farther east. But the GFS has the height field over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS much lower.
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The one caveat, which is hard to evaluate, is whether the high pressure (and associated upper level configuration) will be so anomalous, that the AI will, by its nature, not predict it. The AI models are trained on some amount of reanalysis, and so they can't/won't predict extreme or record-breaking events well. Will this setup be record-breaking? Hard to say. But that's something to keep in mind when evaluating the AI models vs the physics-based models.
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After every exciting run, people should just mutter this to themselves: “It’s La Niña and I live near DC. It’s La Niña and I live near DC.”
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They changed their minds again
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Yea
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BWI had 0.2” yesterday. Haven’t seen anything for IAD or DCA.
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Has a second major snow mid next week. What a weenie run.
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6z euro ai amps things up more than last couple runs. Hard to say with TT plots, but maybe snow-ice-snow? Tons of precip.
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Yup. Wet roads from earlier and the snow melt from the first burst is now all ice. Kids would be getting late opening or more tomorrow if it wasn’t already a holiday.
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1/18: 0.5” 4.3” season total
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0.5” official report. Hit my 0.5-2” range!
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Same
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0.4”. Beat yesterday!
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It needs to start blizzarding at Foxborough to make this game watchable
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Sorry ass 0.2” so far. Sorry ass 4.0” for the season.
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Totally off topic, but what's happened with the Maryland electrical choice? BGE is the only option? There used to be many options?
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He was conceived?
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Sorry ass mulch and roof dusting
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Jan 30, 2010 was on the CIPS analog list @wxmvpete showed earlier
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Sorry ass light to moderate snow
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A few sorry ass flakes
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Control is or was a slightly lower resolution version of the Op. I think EPS has gone to the same resolution as the Op now though? Or is planning to soon?
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Based on what they called in Ravens-Steelers, yes
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I wouldn’t pay much attention to the AI models for mesoscale features. But synoptic scale? Euro AI is a cheat code inside D4-5. GFSAI outperforming physics-based GFS as well
