WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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50mi wobbles are well within the noise even down to t-24hr. All in all pretty consistent. Hopefully it’s consistent for good reasons lol.
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I’m selling on those kind of totals due to the speed of the storm. Ggem with like 5-10 hours of 2”/hr rates? Doubtful. Maybe our west where ratios could be better.
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Lol I just don’t see how you get big accumulations Monday. Even for you M-D line folks, this seems like 5:1 ratio slop. And the moment it lightens up its back to rain and melt. Hope I’m wrong. I’ll hope for some festive white rain while watching mondays 12z euro.
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There’s always banding features. Tuesday is the time to analyze those. N/W always favored.
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Ggem has the low track like right over OCMD. Assumption with a track like that should be mixing to the fall line AT LEAST. Gfs actually has the more classic 50mi east of OCMD track for an all snow storm.
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Catching up. Gfs and ggem are classic mid-Atlantic MECS. Not much to say. Verbatim ggem gives me 11” in 6 hours Wednesday afternoon. As much as that would thrill my weenie soul, I’ll take the under and hope I’m wrong. Snow starts in under 4 days...stay on target.
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Dang like 1.5” of rain or more on gfs. Juicy.
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Lol another gem
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The late night crowds anthem
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Going to be a noticeable difference almost certainly unless the ggem scores a coup here.
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100%
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Yup. This is the best December pattern in years. Well, we had an excellent pattern 2 years ago and RIC on south cashed in.
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Totally different on the front range dude.
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lol for all the reports of New England kumbayah, there’s a metric shit ton of reported posts from there always.
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I didn’t want to bring it up...but 4” soil temps are torched. White rain inbound. Take the snow depth product and divide by 5 if you want a realistic accumulation estimate.
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lol it’s a different world. A lot of us were pretty casual feeling by mid February 2010 and 2014. Otherwise? Naso much.
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Yup. We’ve got nice consistency right now and the ensemble range of outcomes is narrowing and improving. But still at a range where rug pulling is possible. Monday 0z runs are my mark on the wall. Get it there and then we should be down to mesoscale features.
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Sub 1/4mi vis fog
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6z Eps plots I’ve seen are a tick better than 0z in the feature placement we want. But all in all pretty consistent. Nearing D4 for snow start...let’s keep this rolling.
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Oh I’m definitely not in the N/W camp for this storm. I think there’s a very high chance for mix IMBY. but yeah, I’ll do better than DC
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Is this the icon thread??? Asking for a friend.
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This is true even in a ggem like scenario. Easterly flow off the ocean in the low levels usually produces a transient warm layer somewhere and produces pingers or rain. Meanwhile the Parrs Ridge to Funchester crew are puking dendrites. All very normal.
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Sounds like convection issues to me? Low placement is sometimes following the convection? That’s a mesoscale feature that isn’t worth spending time on now. Hopefully the actual circulation center stays offshore.
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Great posts by @MillvilleWx overnight! I’ve noticed that double barreled low look on the last several euro runs. Can’t tell how legit it is. Without it, the euro probably looks more like the ggem for most of us. Have to watch that going forward.
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I think a healthy portion of the area should expect to mix. Whether that’s sleet or rain depends on location, but I know I’d be very surprised with an all snow event. I hope we’re all in good position to get the deform band like yesterday’s 12z euro.
