WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Nowhere like 18z gfs. Mean track off shore as far as I can see.
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It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go.
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D^T says toss that ish!
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Look at those ensemble members in @NorthArlington101s maps. Can’t be 100% sure without individual panels, but looks like some also move due north between those panels. Difference is they’re all farther east when they do it vs the Op. I think the SLP center is following where the shortwave turns negatively tilted.
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^nice pull @NorthArlington101. Op definitely looks like a western outlier. Mouth of the bay to east of OCMD is classic.
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New GEFS has more reasonable divergence I believe. @high risk can confirm or deny.
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Eh, don’t really see that. Either way, all pretty subtle changes that disappoints a lot of us in this particular case.
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Gfs is funny. Through 90hrs, I would have definitely said it would be a better outcome for us than 12z even. CAD is stronger, weaker OH valley primary, confluence a tick more, and shortwave deeper. I think the reason it comes so far inland is maybe the shortwave becomes negatively tilted a little sooner than we’d prefer? I don’t see much else. All within the range of possibility I guess.
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Yeah it’s rough. But lots of time for things to shift back in a good direction. Or go to all rain.
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Low goes over St Mary’s MD. That’ll do it.
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That previous map for 0z Thursday is the rough one. That one shows a lovely CCB ala the euro.
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Sounds good. Pass me one
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Thanks @psuhoffman and @MillvilleWx for the analysis! Onto hopefully happy hour
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Hopefully the over amplified bias is playing by with the EPS as well.
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Euro looks quite nice to those of us who accept that this is very likely going to mix. I want that CCB.
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Euro a little weaker and a bit south vs 0z.
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6 pack of corona light
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Crazy uncle shows up to the party late with generic chips and salsa
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Definitely seems likely you all get on the board with an appetizer.
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50mi wobbles are well within the noise even down to t-24hr. All in all pretty consistent. Hopefully it’s consistent for good reasons lol.
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I’m selling on those kind of totals due to the speed of the storm. Ggem with like 5-10 hours of 2”/hr rates? Doubtful. Maybe our west where ratios could be better.
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Lol I just don’t see how you get big accumulations Monday. Even for you M-D line folks, this seems like 5:1 ratio slop. And the moment it lightens up its back to rain and melt. Hope I’m wrong. I’ll hope for some festive white rain while watching mondays 12z euro.
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There’s always banding features. Tuesday is the time to analyze those. N/W always favored.
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Ggem has the low track like right over OCMD. Assumption with a track like that should be mixing to the fall line AT LEAST. Gfs actually has the more classic 50mi east of OCMD track for an all snow storm.
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Catching up. Gfs and ggem are classic mid-Atlantic MECS. Not much to say. Verbatim ggem gives me 11” in 6 hours Wednesday afternoon. As much as that would thrill my weenie soul, I’ll take the under and hope I’m wrong. Snow starts in under 4 days...stay on target.
