WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Paraphrasing what I can see posted elsewhere, EPS follows the op (unsurprisingly) and is a little weaker and more progressive. Which is a trade I think we’d all make. SLP track looks classic. Maybe 2-4 members as far west as 18z gfs? Haven’t seen thermals yet.
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Yeah, I’ve only seen maps folks have posts here and on other forums, but all looks like minor details.
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@tombo82685 mentioned elsewhere that the shortwave is a little weaker on 18z euro vs 12z. High pressure and CAD look very similar to my eye. We'll see what the EPS offers.
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What storm?
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@psuhoffman look again at the 12z euro SLP track. 102hr off south end of OBX. 108hr mouth of the Bay 114hr due north (!) over Rehobeth beach 120hr moves southeast (!) out to sea This is all about how the upper level energy stacks and captures the surface low. Get it to stack in a good place, and we get nuked. As it is, that’s why we get an awesome CCB death band on the euro. Get it to stack in a poor place and it’s
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Nowhere like 18z gfs. Mean track off shore as far as I can see.
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It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go.
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D^T says toss that ish!
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Look at those ensemble members in @NorthArlington101s maps. Can’t be 100% sure without individual panels, but looks like some also move due north between those panels. Difference is they’re all farther east when they do it vs the Op. I think the SLP center is following where the shortwave turns negatively tilted.
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^nice pull @NorthArlington101. Op definitely looks like a western outlier. Mouth of the bay to east of OCMD is classic.
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New GEFS has more reasonable divergence I believe. @high risk can confirm or deny.
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Eh, don’t really see that. Either way, all pretty subtle changes that disappoints a lot of us in this particular case.
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Gfs is funny. Through 90hrs, I would have definitely said it would be a better outcome for us than 12z even. CAD is stronger, weaker OH valley primary, confluence a tick more, and shortwave deeper. I think the reason it comes so far inland is maybe the shortwave becomes negatively tilted a little sooner than we’d prefer? I don’t see much else. All within the range of possibility I guess.
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Yeah it’s rough. But lots of time for things to shift back in a good direction. Or go to all rain.
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Low goes over St Mary’s MD. That’ll do it.
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That previous map for 0z Thursday is the rough one. That one shows a lovely CCB ala the euro.
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Sounds good. Pass me one
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Thanks @psuhoffman and @MillvilleWx for the analysis! Onto hopefully happy hour
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Hopefully the over amplified bias is playing by with the EPS as well.
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Euro looks quite nice to those of us who accept that this is very likely going to mix. I want that CCB.
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Euro a little weaker and a bit south vs 0z.
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6 pack of corona light
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Crazy uncle shows up to the party late with generic chips and salsa
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Definitely seems likely you all get on the board with an appetizer.
