WxUSAF

Euro saves Christmas

Seems fairly clear to me the OH valley low is no longer any issue. We’ve solved that riddle. What’s left is the precise surface low track. And it seems to me that all these seeming big changes are just due to subtle differences in where the surface low gets captured by the upper level energy and how offshore convection torques things. The convection is going to remain a wildcard. The upper level part may get nailed down a bit more, but these aren’t radical changes by any means for a ~72hr forecast. Of course it makes a huge difference in sensible wx outcome to most of us.

GGEM does keep ticking west but it’s also hauling ass. Has a really nice front end thump but that’s most of the show.

GFS CCB NSFW

GFS UHI is always amped

HoCo bullseye. Lock it the F UP!

Had a little rain overnight Torch now. Sun angle is warm. 4” soil temp could fry an egg. Uhoh

Everyone except maybe the I81 crew should be rooting for a slightly more progressive solution. Gives us more snow with the probable added benefit of screwing SNE (sorry @WxWatcher007).

New thread...

Latitude and elevation are going to help, as always. @mappy and @psuhoffman are in ideal spots for the deform band as always. But yeah, there’s a risk for the 495 area that it translates farther NE and you get scraped but miss out on the nest. Let’s root for yesterday’s 12z euro scenario!

I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised.

Ok. This thread is now back to tracking #SantaBomb or #Torchmas

Good morning. Someone start a storm thread!

Same. I’m 370-380’ two miles from 95. It helps. A lot in many situations. But still close enough to be dicey compared to the M-D line crew.

I love being above the Fall Line Sorry @CAPE

Basically. I’d say the Monday 0z runs is where the Op runs are the focus.

If the 18z Eps is exactly right, you should get something on the front end and the back. Just a lot of rain in the middle...

Well, we took some flack, but we made it through D-4 intact and still on course. D-3 comes next. We lower the landing gear after the 0z Monday runs.

Show that SLP and 500 track in winter and the 0th order assumption should be WSW snow for most of LWX WFO zone.

Paraphrasing what I can see posted elsewhere, EPS follows the op (unsurprisingly) and is a little weaker and more progressive. Which is a trade I think we’d all make. SLP track looks classic. Maybe 2-4 members as far west as 18z gfs? Haven’t seen thermals yet.

Yeah, I’ve only seen maps folks have posts here and on other forums, but all looks like minor details.

@tombo82685 mentioned elsewhere that the shortwave is a little weaker on 18z euro vs 12z. High pressure and CAD look very similar to my eye. We'll see what the EPS offers.

What storm?

@psuhoffman look again at the 12z euro SLP track. 102hr off south end of OBX. 108hr mouth of the Bay 114hr due north (!) over Rehobeth beach 120hr moves southeast (!) out to sea This is all about how the upper level energy stacks and captures the surface low. Get it to stack in a good place, and we get nuked. As it is, that’s why we get an awesome CCB death band on the euro. Get it to stack in a poor place and it’s