WxUSAF

Euro pants tent. Central MD bullseye. Lock that ish UP!

D9 event looks decent on GEFS. Good banana high and nice SLP track although it doesn’t seem to turn the corner up the coast, although closer to that than previous runs.

GEFS slp track is north of 6z and south of 0z. But pretty wide swings so far. Definitely warmer aloft though. TPV in Canada is a bit farther north and less suppressive. The biggest change is the depth of the follow on shortwave that comes onshore early next week. It’s much deeper on the 12z run and that pumps the ridge more over us.

Focus on track and 500 evolution on the ensembles. They will by nature suck for precip type in CAD situations.

Wrong thread

Fair to say TT and StormVista have very different views of Icon snowfall.

Use this thread for discussing the 25-26th storm threat starting now.

Please the other thread for the 25-26th storm threat starting with today’s 12z runs. 28-29th threat stays here.

^Hrrr has snowshowers tomorrow morning also.

“Region” defined as I81 west to the edge of the LWX CFO

The chickweed is once again loving this winter.

So do we use the other thread starting at 12z? Only 7 days to go!

I did have that heavy graupel shower 10 days ago. So it’s definitely Top 2.

Wow, just actually had a little flurry

If this more or less holds through the Wednesday 0z runs, then we can say it’s the best snow chance since mid December.

Outside of the mid-December storm, no threat has really survived past D7 this winter. So next 24-48 hours will be illuminating on whether this doesn’t start falling off a cliff. Those other long range threats all ended up suppressed too.

The good news is we can start using the other thread tomorrow to talk about this threat!

Has like 3 separate waves in 3 days. Snow to rain to rain to snow to snow. I’d take that.

It’s not just us, it’s the whole damn continent. The winter temperature anomalies (at least as of when I last saw them, probably like 7-10 days ago) were very Nino-ish. Warm Canada and northern US, slightly cool southern US due to an active southern storm track.

Distilling down our issues this winter seem two fold to me. First, the northern stream has been extremely uncooperative. Either it’s suppressive, or it has phased with the southern stream in a poor position, or (as possibly in the case for next weekend) it fosters ridging ahead of a southern stream low. Now this is not that strange in a Nina, but usually something works out despite that base hostility. Second, the obvious thing is just the utter and shocking lack of cold air. 6z GEFS, as an example, has like 2 days below normal through D15 (this weekend, and we’re talking like 3-5F BN). Remember when this was starting a BN period? There’s just no cold air around. It’s pretty scary and disconcerting how incessantly warm it’s been.

EPS mean still looks like a mean slp track to our south. Hope that holds.

Well it was weaker because it held some energy back and then gives VA a nice snowstorm next Wednesday.

That was 12z actually. 18z looks like a weaker version of the op.

I think so. I remember we were stoked for an overrunning pattern from D10+ range but then the cold just pressed farther and farther and we had a cold and dry couple weeks.

4” of cold powder? Sign me up for that ish.