EPS has been pretty steady so far. GEFS and GFS bouncing all over the damn place. Yeah, still 6-7 days away, but I know which of the 2 I'd put more weight on.
That’s a tough angle for a phase at the end of the euro. I’d guess it would miss the phase past 240 if I had to guess. Or maybe phase well OTS. Still a pretty nice setup. Busy times ahead hopefully.
D9 event looks decent on GEFS. Good banana high and nice SLP track although it doesn’t seem to turn the corner up the coast, although closer to that than previous runs.
GEFS slp track is north of 6z and south of 0z. But pretty wide swings so far. Definitely warmer aloft though. TPV in Canada is a bit farther north and less suppressive. The biggest change is the depth of the follow on shortwave that comes onshore early next week. It’s much deeper on the 12z run and that pumps the ridge more over us.
Outside of the mid-December storm, no threat has really survived past D7 this winter. So next 24-48 hours will be illuminating on whether this doesn’t start falling off a cliff. Those other long range threats all ended up suppressed too.