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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Going to unpin this temporarily as we have plenty to track within the next week. If any people really want to talk early February, this is the place.
  2. WxUSAF
    Stronger and farther west low could provide a better WAA thump. Weaker low to the south keeps us snow longer. Hopefully we have some flexibility to get SOME snow. If this storm amps up and moves north closer to game time, it would definitely be the outlier relative to the trend the last 3-4 weeks.
  3. WxUSAF
    I think most of the area from DC on north gets a good WAA thump from 18-0z Monday per euro. Then mixy light precip mostly after. It definitely ticked south from 0z. I’d like another 50-100mi south over the next couple days in case the inevitable last minute north trend happens. Euro is still the farthest NW with the 850mb low.
  4. WxUSAF
    Ukie sort of looks like the euro from what I can tell with a WAA snow thump, mix to dry spot. It’s my far the farthest NW of the guidance though. Pattern I’ve seen today so far is to better show cold air hanging on east of the Apps. Haven’t diagnosed if that’s due to better CAD or reflecting dynamical cooling as precip starts or both.
  5. WxUSAF
    Pinger party. Main low farther north and stronger vs 0z.
  6. WxUSAF
    Welcome to the party GFS
  7. WxUSAF
    Bleh. Good things it’s five days out still.
  8. WxUSAF
    SUCK IT BAHSTAN
  9. WxUSAF
    lol high of 45F at BWI today. This was the "cold" day for the week. 4F above normal.
  10. WxUSAF
    Trend is our friend?
  11. WxUSAF
    EPS mean gives me like 10” through the end of next week lol. I’ll take that.
  12. WxUSAF
    5” thump to mix to dryslot? I’d hit that. Interesting that this starts late Monday morning on the euro now. Speeding up.
  13. WxUSAF
    850mb low is like 300-400mi north of the 0z position at 132hrs.
  14. WxUSAF
    Flurries at the inauguration!
  15. WxUSAF
    Temp already up to 42. This was looking like a mid 30s days just like 48 hours ago. No cold air.
  16. WxUSAF
    I agree. 6z EPS mean is farther north than 0z, but it's a pretty small bump for 5-6 days out.
  17. WxUSAF
  18. WxUSAF
    Yeah, it’s still nearly 6 days away so expectations should be tempered. As @psuhoffman has said, it looks like a fairly narrow north-south extent of snow, so very conceivable someone in the region could get screwed. I think suppression (6z gfs like?) is probably the most likely failure mode.
  19. WxUSAF
    EPS has been very steady. Nice to see that continue at 0z. Getting close to being real. Main southern shortwave is onshore in about 72hrs.
  20. WxUSAF
    Same. A little bit of frozen something collected on mulch, but temp rose overnight so it melted mostly.
  21. WxUSAF
    Not even a single member like the GFS or many of the GEFS members. That pretty stark, even at D6 range. It looks a lot like EPS has already for the last 2 days at least.
  22. WxUSAF
    Just bought tubing tickets for Feb 20. So expect partly cloudy and high of 53.
  23. WxUSAF
    I said a couple days ago that tonight’s 0z runs were a key threshold for me. That puts us about 150hrs out. Still aways to go, but nothing else really got to that point this month and still looked like a legit chance.
  24. WxUSAF
    Key Difference between the month to date and what’s coming next week is the PNA. The positive PNA we’ve had was working to shift things south of us, but in combination with the NAO it was a shredfest. Hopefully with the upcoming -PNA, we get some offsetting factors to keep the storm track nearby.
  25. WxUSAF
    I'm confused. Which wave are you speaking of? GFS just took the lead wave far north? But I agree in general, suppression is a greater threat than cutters next week.
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