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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. Thanks for the cold, bottom of the pot, cup of coffee friend!
  2. Temps rose near midnight to 36 and only fell to 30. God we suck.
  3. 0z GFS colder and snowier, particularly for north of DC
  4. lol gonna be like 33 IMBY at midnight
  5. Yes, light fzra accumulates better and the colder the better. When we had crippling ice events in ‘94, temps were in the 10s and low 20s with fzra. But cold temps this weekend will help make surfaces cold.
  6. Do we get a sub-freezing day tomorrow? I assume DCA and BWI have no chance, but maybe IAD and many of the burbs?
  7. I think the bleeding has stopped with this 12z suite. Hopefully our thermal profiles can edge a bit better, but hopefully we’ve already seen the high water mark for the warmer air.
  8. Gimme that entire GGEM run...wow, weenie run of the year.
  9. Bump for the 3rd storm the GGEM gives us this run!!
  10. It's like 4-6" north of DC. HoCo bullseye
  11. Time for this bad boy again
  12. Oh wow, and it stays snow...nice hit for MD.
  13. GGEM also colder to start. Snow north of DC Monday afternoon.
  14. Thermals are better. I think the farther NW surface low actually helps that by providing a little more room for the high pressure and confluence to push in and keep us colder with the WAA precip. But then GFS keeps that primary low going much longer than previously, which is not helpful.
  15. The backside precip that is shown on the GFS and GEFS only hits us because of the track of the low. If it’s farther north then it’s over PA. We don’t need a ton of movement to get back to an all or mostly snow event. And we have time still, but I’d like to see it happen over the next 36-48 hours.
  16. I hear that and you’re not entirely wrong. But we’re losing more ground each wobble then gaining back. 12z Eps shifted south on track but thermals were meh. 18z went the wrong way on both. Still wouldn’t be surprised if things trend toward a weaker more suppressed solution; but it hasn’t yet.
  17. Despite what everyone here does, the utility of ensembles is not for the snow maps. It’s for track and strength of features. The track shifted south from 0z to 12z. Once we get the the point of sweating thermal profiles (12z Saturday runs probably), then you’re focusing on the operational model.
  18. First Monday prediction: DCA: T of sleet @psuhoffman and @mappy: 7”
  19. EPS mean definitely moved south with the Op. Really want that to continue. Wouldn’t take a lot to have the meat of the snow band through much of our area. Precip starts in under 100hrs...
  20. Going to unpin this temporarily as we have plenty to track within the next week. If any people really want to talk early February, this is the place.
  21. Stronger and farther west low could provide a better WAA thump. Weaker low to the south keeps us snow longer. Hopefully we have some flexibility to get SOME snow. If this storm amps up and moves north closer to game time, it would definitely be the outlier relative to the trend the last 3-4 weeks.
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