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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I know it used to do that for the 6z and 18z runs. Thats why back in the day, the 6z and 18z runs could burp out some real outlier solutions. But I thought that changed long ago. @high risk?
  2. WxUSAF
    ^stronger and more consolidated shortwave. Can’t think that’s bad.
  3. WxUSAF
    Thanks for the cold, bottom of the pot, cup of coffee friend!
  4. WxUSAF
    Euro is nice to wake up to!!
  5. WxUSAF
    Temps rose near midnight to 36 and only fell to 30. God we suck.
  6. WxUSAF
    0z GFS colder and snowier, particularly for north of DC
  7. WxUSAF
    lol gonna be like 33 IMBY at midnight
  8. WxUSAF
    Yes, light fzra accumulates better and the colder the better. When we had crippling ice events in ‘94, temps were in the 10s and low 20s with fzra. But cold temps this weekend will help make surfaces cold.
  9. WxUSAF
    Do we get a sub-freezing day tomorrow? I assume DCA and BWI have no chance, but maybe IAD and many of the burbs?
  10. WxUSAF
    Look at that 500mb pattern! It’s pretty damn good!
  11. WxUSAF
    I think the bleeding has stopped with this 12z suite. Hopefully our thermal profiles can edge a bit better, but hopefully we’ve already seen the high water mark for the warmer air.
  12. WxUSAF
    Don’t forget latitude!
  13. WxUSAF
    Gimme that entire GGEM run...wow, weenie run of the year.
  14. WxUSAF
    Bump for the 3rd storm the GGEM gives us this run!!
  15. WxUSAF
    It's like 4-6" north of DC. HoCo bullseye
  16. WxUSAF
    Time for this bad boy again
  17. WxUSAF
    Oh wow, and it stays snow...nice hit for MD.
  18. WxUSAF
    GGEM also colder to start. Snow north of DC Monday afternoon.
  19. WxUSAF
    #rightwherewewantit #northtrend
  20. WxUSAF
    Thermals are better. I think the farther NW surface low actually helps that by providing a little more room for the high pressure and confluence to push in and keep us colder with the WAA precip. But then GFS keeps that primary low going much longer than previously, which is not helpful.
  21. WxUSAF
    The backside precip that is shown on the GFS and GEFS only hits us because of the track of the low. If it’s farther north then it’s over PA. We don’t need a ton of movement to get back to an all or mostly snow event. And we have time still, but I’d like to see it happen over the next 36-48 hours.
  22. WxUSAF
    I hear that and you’re not entirely wrong. But we’re losing more ground each wobble then gaining back. 12z Eps shifted south on track but thermals were meh. 18z went the wrong way on both. Still wouldn’t be surprised if things trend toward a weaker more suppressed solution; but it hasn’t yet.
  23. WxUSAF
    Despite what everyone here does, the utility of ensembles is not for the snow maps. It’s for track and strength of features. The track shifted south from 0z to 12z. Once we get the the point of sweating thermal profiles (12z Saturday runs probably), then you’re focusing on the operational model.
  24. WxUSAF
    First Monday prediction: DCA: T of sleet @psuhoffman and @mappy: 7”
  25. WxUSAF
    EPS mean definitely moved south with the Op. Really want that to continue. Wouldn’t take a lot to have the meat of the snow band through much of our area. Precip starts in under 100hrs...
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