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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Do we get a sub-freezing day tomorrow? I assume DCA and BWI have no chance, but maybe IAD and many of the burbs?
  2. WxUSAF
    Look at that 500mb pattern! It’s pretty damn good!
  3. WxUSAF
    I think the bleeding has stopped with this 12z suite. Hopefully our thermal profiles can edge a bit better, but hopefully we’ve already seen the high water mark for the warmer air.
  4. WxUSAF
    Don’t forget latitude!
  5. WxUSAF
    Gimme that entire GGEM run...wow, weenie run of the year.
  6. WxUSAF
    Bump for the 3rd storm the GGEM gives us this run!!
  7. WxUSAF
    It's like 4-6" north of DC. HoCo bullseye
  8. WxUSAF
    Time for this bad boy again
  9. WxUSAF
    Oh wow, and it stays snow...nice hit for MD.
  10. WxUSAF
    GGEM also colder to start. Snow north of DC Monday afternoon.
  11. WxUSAF
    #rightwherewewantit #northtrend
  12. WxUSAF
    Thermals are better. I think the farther NW surface low actually helps that by providing a little more room for the high pressure and confluence to push in and keep us colder with the WAA precip. But then GFS keeps that primary low going much longer than previously, which is not helpful.
  13. WxUSAF
    The backside precip that is shown on the GFS and GEFS only hits us because of the track of the low. If it’s farther north then it’s over PA. We don’t need a ton of movement to get back to an all or mostly snow event. And we have time still, but I’d like to see it happen over the next 36-48 hours.
  14. WxUSAF
    I hear that and you’re not entirely wrong. But we’re losing more ground each wobble then gaining back. 12z Eps shifted south on track but thermals were meh. 18z went the wrong way on both. Still wouldn’t be surprised if things trend toward a weaker more suppressed solution; but it hasn’t yet.
  15. WxUSAF
    Despite what everyone here does, the utility of ensembles is not for the snow maps. It’s for track and strength of features. The track shifted south from 0z to 12z. Once we get the the point of sweating thermal profiles (12z Saturday runs probably), then you’re focusing on the operational model.
  16. WxUSAF
    First Monday prediction: DCA: T of sleet @psuhoffman and @mappy: 7”
  17. WxUSAF
    EPS mean definitely moved south with the Op. Really want that to continue. Wouldn’t take a lot to have the meat of the snow band through much of our area. Precip starts in under 100hrs...
  18. WxUSAF
    Going to unpin this temporarily as we have plenty to track within the next week. If any people really want to talk early February, this is the place.
  19. WxUSAF
    Stronger and farther west low could provide a better WAA thump. Weaker low to the south keeps us snow longer. Hopefully we have some flexibility to get SOME snow. If this storm amps up and moves north closer to game time, it would definitely be the outlier relative to the trend the last 3-4 weeks.
  20. WxUSAF
    I think most of the area from DC on north gets a good WAA thump from 18-0z Monday per euro. Then mixy light precip mostly after. It definitely ticked south from 0z. I’d like another 50-100mi south over the next couple days in case the inevitable last minute north trend happens. Euro is still the farthest NW with the 850mb low.
  21. WxUSAF
    Ukie sort of looks like the euro from what I can tell with a WAA snow thump, mix to dry spot. It’s my far the farthest NW of the guidance though. Pattern I’ve seen today so far is to better show cold air hanging on east of the Apps. Haven’t diagnosed if that’s due to better CAD or reflecting dynamical cooling as precip starts or both.
  22. WxUSAF
    Pinger party. Main low farther north and stronger vs 0z.
  23. WxUSAF
    Welcome to the party GFS
  24. WxUSAF
    Bleh. Good things it’s five days out still.
  25. WxUSAF
    SUCK IT BAHSTAN
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