There’s definitely some of that. And for snow events, we obviously notice it.
Doesn’t cover why Great Lakes ice is at a record low, why the whole planet is warm, etc.
NAM is still at range really. Precip starts in about 40-45 hours. I’d like to see those thermals hold or cool a bit, but 2-3” with some crust works for me. I’d also take the 5.5” the 12z euro gave me.
Famous last words, but I feel like the forecast, for my yard at least, is fairly stable. Couple-few hours of decent snow Monday evening, then some sleet, probably ended by quite a long time of light rain with temps between 30-34.
I know it used to do that for the 6z and 18z runs. Thats why back in the day, the 6z and 18z runs could burp out some real outlier solutions. But I thought that changed long ago. @high risk?