WxUSAF

I mean, I was thinking a dusting-2” could be a better forecast for MBY potentially. 3K NAM and RGEM keep hope alive that I could exceed last years total snow (3.5”) from this storm.

RGEM has a nice WAA thump. Really nice by our updated standards for this storm. 2-5” for everyone including DC. Yes goes to sleet and rain, but adjust your standards people.

@high risk yup RE: sleet. 2” of snow, 1” of sleet, then another dusting-1” of snow sounds great at this point. Every weenie for themselves grabbing the gold chandeliers off the titanic.

3k NAM keeps MBY at or below freezing for the duration. Based on soundings, actually quite a bit of sleet and not as much rain or “freezing rain”. Freezing rain ain’t happening at temps of 30-32. Maybe a little glaze on railings and tree limbs. I get the NAM is pretty disastrous for the N/W crew, but I’m in salvage mode so I’ll take what I can get.

Haven’t seen 6z euro, but took a quick look at other guidance. For MBY, it looks to all come down to the WAA thump. Thankfully, it looks pretty good on the 0z euro and meso guidance. But after that, it’s a sleet/rain mess and the CCB looks north of me. Maybe a finger of it sweeps through and gives me another dusting-2” tops, but that’s it. Pretty bleak frankly compared to 36hrs ago. If it wasn’t for that high pressure and confluence, this would be 100% rain for almost everyone with that surface low track.

Ref show tonight

Yeah, same. It's fun for the big dogs, but exhausting in the end.

That backside CCB does look nice on the 18z euro. Hope it happens.

Yeah, I was thinking sleet, but 18z GFS and Euro seem more like snow vs. rain. These are really tiny thermal details. I'm pretty much just in "chips fall" time. Seems like we know the basic deal here.

Can you post some 3hrly surface maps with precip?

Without seeing a sounding, I can't be sure, but that seems a lot like the 18z GFS for the R/S line area. Nearly isothermal profile right around freezing from ~850mb to the surface. Very tiny margin between hours of heavy wet snow and driving rain.

That looks like rain or maybe rain/snow mix at best for most of MoCo/HoCo and 495 part of VA at 0z Thursday with those 925 and 850 temps. Hopefully those temps crash back eastward at that point.

Sleet or rain though for many?

What does the WAA snow look like and where does the mix line get to?

I think you'll do alright. Being farther west helps. 4-8/5-10"? That's one of those places that's a 20-25min drive from me and could easily double my snowfall.

0-24" for VA. I'd narrow that down to 1-15" for Leesburg area. Thanks Phin. 1-15"

I'd lump you in with northwest Harford. 10-18".

@WVclimo nice pull. lol that looks very possible.

Which is kind of the point. They had a forecast. Why stop using it for that garbage? P.S. Go RPM!!

I made a long FB post today as I've been getting lots of questions from family and friends. Here it is for anyone who cares: Major winter storm for Maryland Wednesday into Thursday Snow will start late morning Wednesday from south to north across the state. It will mix with sleet, and possibly rain, for much of Maryland outside of northern Baltimore county to Frederick and points north. Sleet will eventually turn back to snow later in the evening Wednesday before tapering off early Thursday morning. The gradient between a little slush and snow to a LOT of snow is really sharp. Could be as little as ~20-30 miles in places. Picking that exact boundary is very difficult in advance. Elevation and latitude is critical. Higher elevation locations and locations farther north will get more snow, all else being equal. Numbers below include sleet, and there could be a lot of sleet in places. Howard county: 9-15" in Mt. Airy, 6-12" west Ellicott City, 4-8" Columbia, 2-5" eastern Elkridge. Harford county: 10-18" northwest, 6-12" Bel Air, 4-8" Abingdon, 3-6" Aberdeen and Havre de Grace. Baltimore city: 3-6" 495 beltway: 3-6" north side near Bethesda, 2-5" most elsewhere, 1-3" south side. DC: 2-5" north DC, 1-3" downtown.

I've been telling my kids 1-15". Feeling good about it.

WBAL had a pretty good map earlier, at least prior to any 12z/18z changes. I don't get just ripping the RPM snow map as a forecast. WJZ has this pretty terrible looking maps, but I guess 4-6" around Baltimore is reasonable.

WBAL riding RPM which says 10”+ for areas north of DC-BWI...

Not sure about that. It is progressive, particularly at range.

It’s hard to figure out when a model is just playing into its bias and when it’s on to something. NAM bias is over amplified.