WxUSAF
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Unpinning for now
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39/22 with high cirrus
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Email
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Actually I think you'd take the euro and run.
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Disagree. WAA starting earlier and heavier is one of the weenie rules that works out more often than not.
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Gun to head we get 3" I say.
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Yeah, he said he was never feeling this one, so kudos to him.
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Yeah, that's the takeaway for me today. ~10am-4 or 5pm hopefully will look and feel like winter IMBY so I'll get a nice @Jebman Jebwalk and with some luck, maybe even exceed last year's total snowfall.
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You can see it, just can't make witty retorts.
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Chips fall time to quote @Bob Chill.
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It's disappointing, but no guidance gives you and I nothing. I'd say you still have a pretty decent chance at WSW verification. Much less chance for me.
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Yeah, WAA thump looks better for most of us. A lot like the mesoscale models. But then rain and not much after it pulls away because it's too far northeast.
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Damn I’m glad my paycheck doesn’t ride on this forecast. Gfs is definitely an improvement over 6z with the WAA thump. 0z sounding for MBY is isothermal JUST below freezing from 750-950mb. Then above below that. Verbatim that’s probably wet snow that’s very rate dependent. But got to believe there will be a more noticeable warm layer aloft like the NAM shows. So still thinking quite a bit of sleet. Staying all frozen with that low track would be pretty miraculous.
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I mean, I was thinking a dusting-2” could be a better forecast for MBY potentially. 3K NAM and RGEM keep hope alive that I could exceed last years total snow (3.5”) from this storm.
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RGEM has a nice WAA thump. Really nice by our updated standards for this storm. 2-5” for everyone including DC. Yes goes to sleet and rain, but adjust your standards people.
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@high risk yup RE: sleet. 2” of snow, 1” of sleet, then another dusting-1” of snow sounds great at this point. Every weenie for themselves grabbing the gold chandeliers off the titanic.
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3k NAM keeps MBY at or below freezing for the duration. Based on soundings, actually quite a bit of sleet and not as much rain or “freezing rain”. Freezing rain ain’t happening at temps of 30-32. Maybe a little glaze on railings and tree limbs. I get the NAM is pretty disastrous for the N/W crew, but I’m in salvage mode so I’ll take what I can get.
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Haven’t seen 6z euro, but took a quick look at other guidance. For MBY, it looks to all come down to the WAA thump. Thankfully, it looks pretty good on the 0z euro and meso guidance. But after that, it’s a sleet/rain mess and the CCB looks north of me. Maybe a finger of it sweeps through and gives me another dusting-2” tops, but that’s it. Pretty bleak frankly compared to 36hrs ago. If it wasn’t for that high pressure and confluence, this would be 100% rain for almost everyone with that surface low track.
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Ref show tonight
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Yeah, same. It's fun for the big dogs, but exhausting in the end.
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That backside CCB does look nice on the 18z euro. Hope it happens.
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Yeah, I was thinking sleet, but 18z GFS and Euro seem more like snow vs. rain. These are really tiny thermal details. I'm pretty much just in "chips fall" time. Seems like we know the basic deal here.
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Can you post some 3hrly surface maps with precip?
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Without seeing a sounding, I can't be sure, but that seems a lot like the 18z GFS for the R/S line area. Nearly isothermal profile right around freezing from ~850mb to the surface. Very tiny margin between hours of heavy wet snow and driving rain.
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That looks like rain or maybe rain/snow mix at best for most of MoCo/HoCo and 495 part of VA at 0z Thursday with those 925 and 850 temps. Hopefully those temps crash back eastward at that point.
