WxUSAF
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
The wave along the front type deal behind the cutter next week has been showing up occasionally. -
That's not a fight, it's a homicide. As long as the Euro doesn't move farther south, I think we're looking good. If it holds or inches back northwestward with the coastal, then I think we get rolling.
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Not sure if it was mentioned but 6z EPS increased spread vs previous runs.
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Hmm ok. Those seem like good numbers to me through like Sunday late evening.
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Total through Tuesday??
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If you think the disagreement for our sub forum is bad, look at the Poconos area lol. 20-25” difference between the euro and other guidance like the para. RGEM looks lovely, I’m hugging.
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Caps Twitter is reading the storm thread
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Analysis paralysis Its time to just get on with it. At least we can start looking at soundings soon.
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I totally agree, but I think we’ve had one op run (and the ukie at that) with something like that in the last 72hrs?
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lol look at the 18z para and suppression will seem like a distant memory. Essentially no precip after Sunday.
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So the ensemble mean snow map jackpot moved south like 30miles and we’re calling that a huge shift? That’s noise.
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This is probably the last ensemble run worth paying much attention to. Almost NAM time!
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It’s whiplash to read our threads then compare to phillywx. They are all convinced it’s going to end up north while Hoffman is all “congrats RIC, ugh fringed again”.
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I mean, as of 8pm Sunday, it’s quite possible or even likely that you and the south side of 495 crowd have more than anyone in MD. But that probably won’t last...
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Lol as if you won’t end up with more than me. But sure, if you want to see pictures of 25% less snow, I’m your man! Euro and EPS have been very steady. All other guidance is moving toward it. Snow starts in like 60hrs. Time to let it happen and plan your Jebwalk.
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This storm seems pretty locked in to me. Yes, final jackpot location is unknown, but we know where climo usually puts it outside of rare events. Is EZF or DCA going to be the jackpot of a Nina Miller B? Lol
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7-8” all snow just as the CCB is starting to crank? Sign me up!!!
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Late Sunday and early Monday could be a boom time for you.
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Headline for WTOP this morning was “maybe a little accumulation” before it changes to rain
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I don’t know why Bel Air would be the jackpot for phase 1, but a general 3-6” seems like the right call to me. I think potential for more in north-central VA.
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That’s a very good point and why you get the L dancing around to the southwest after being offshore. Euro and GGEM did that today. Basic baroclinicity argues the low will be close to the coastline. Unlike December we have a respectable airmass ahead of this so the low shouldn’t ride up the Bay. Coastal front should be on the coast... P.S. you saw this window coming from 10+ days so big kudos on the pattern recognition
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I meant to stop at Total Wine today to stock up for the storm and totally forgot.
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He is a well known wx weenie
