WxUSAF

Euro overdoes near-surface winds. Don't know why.

As @Deck Pic likes to say, this was a terrible Euro run for people who hate 12-24" snowstorms

EPS lost the far west outliers. Damn that looks SWEET.

Definitely. I know Pivotal put purple (sleet) right along 95 in the CCB, but that warm layer must be pretty thin if it exists with 925, 850, and 700mb temps all below freezing at that time. Not to mention climo suggests the cold air collapses back east once the CCB cranks. We can worry about those details Saturday evening or Sunday. Let's keep this 500mb and surface evolution more or less intact for another 48-72 hours please.

Good catch, yeah, you'd think we'd finally wet-bulb fully after 36hrs of precip

Yeah, it's a little odd. I don't see why temps would go above freezing like that underneath the CCB. You'll get northeasterly flow and there's plenty of cold air ahead of the storm. I wouldn't worry about it at this point.

From the 500mb evolution, you can't ask for much more. That late northern shortwave diving in and causing the stall is unusual and I'd normally be skeptical of it, but it's there on almost all the guidance... It just comes down to where the surface low ends up and banding, etc. I think the Euro has shown us that this has the potential for a 18"+ max stripe, question is where it ends up.

Climo dude. And it's still 4 days out from starting.

If you live west of the Bay, there REALLY should't be any complaining about that run. I'll take my 12" and sleet and say "thank you sir may I have another".

Nobody posted on GEFS? Looks like a move south from the overnight runs and the coastal transfer probably has a number of farther south transfers just looking at the GEFS mean on TT with lots of isobar bagginess down toward the NC coast at 114hrs.

You can send those snow depth maps to the trash can on your computer.

Para quite similar to old GFS in sensible outcome. 6-9" when all said and done. Thump, dry slot, back to snow showers with the ULL.

There has definitely been a seasonal trend of primary lows hanging on longer than we want before coastal transfer. Doesn't mean it's going to happen this time though. I'd personally still be quite happy with 5-6", drizzle and dry slot, then 24hours of snowshowers for another 1-2". But I guess YMMV.

What Sun?

Yeah. That looks about as classic as you can get for a big mid-Atlantic snowstorm.

Definitely Nina climo, especially Nina Miller B hybrid climo, is against us getting the goods. But the blocking puts us in the game. I’m also very much down for a cold powder warning-level event with no stress lol.

0z GGEM basically stalls. Para had a stall a couple days ago for one or two runs. I haven’t looked at individual ensemble members, but I’d wager the big dogs on the ensemble individual snow maps are stalls. A stall is certainly on the table. But it comes down to precise shortwave timing and how it phases.

I agree with @psuhoffman that at this point, the only way most of us don’t see any snow from this is if it’s suppressed way south. As we saw with Monday’s storm, when we have a -PNA, that’s more difficult then with a +PNA. Its nice that we will actually have a respectably cold airmass this weekend leading into the storm. Big storms always have a mix line though, whether it’s sleet or rain or both. Often its as we transition from the WAA precip to the deformation band. Then once the deform band cranks, that mix line collapses back east. Hopefully we are thinking about those details on Saturday.

Ha, yes. New England weenies loving the EPS.

Per @tombo82685, only 3 EPS members were op-like. Definitely a southern outlier.

6z GFS ticked north relative to 0z lol. 6z Para is a strung out mess. Sort of a snowier version of Monday’s event. But damn that EPS clustering right off OCMD is beautiful.

500mb comparison to 12z that @Wentzadelphia posted elsewhere looks to me like the 18z EPS is more likely to capture the surface low and get a stall and stack. Northern stream energy is diving into our main low at 144hrs and the whole trough is deeper with more ridging ahead of it over the Atlantic. Pretty amazing to see this on a D6 mean.

Always a good sign people are having a measured response to a D5 event when there’s discussion about the precise definition of BECS

GFS has MBY at or below freezing from late tomorrow evening until the snow changes to rain late Sunday. Ok then...