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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    BWI exactly normal for December and DCA and IAD fractionally above normal. Warm seems to always win out in the end.
  2. WxUSAF
    Thanks. Feeling most of the way to 100%.
  3. WxUSAF
    Nice consistency across the guidance with ~120 hours to go. Let’s keep it going. I think by tomorrows 12z runs or definitely 0z Friday, we can feel really good if we have similar looks.
  4. WxUSAF
    Happy new year everyone!
  5. WxUSAF
    GFS with the @CAPE beach blizzard for storm 2
  6. WxUSAF
    It’s solid. Got to smell the rain to get the goods. Or be on Mt @psuhoffman
  7. WxUSAF
    We are!!
  8. WxUSAF
    We Are!!
  9. WxUSAF
    To get technical as I’m a couple drinks in, this is one more example that the EPS is appropriately dispersive whereas GEFS plays follow the leader at this range.
  10. WxUSAF
    @mitchnick with the NYE weenie rescue
  11. WxUSAF
    Best severe wx radar of the year? lol
  12. WxUSAF
    We ain’t done after Monday. Not sure what’s going to happen, but we’re not done.
  13. WxUSAF
    Large STW south of DC lol
  14. WxUSAF
    Casual 1000+mi shift inside D5
  15. WxUSAF
    If weekly control snow maps are you thing, have I got one for you (shamelessly stolen from Twitter)
  16. WxUSAF
    Position of the 50/50 and shortwave spacing are the devily details that won't get sorted out for awhile. And likely what happens with Monday plays a key role in how it sets up for late next week. I remain encouraged that even if late next week doesn't work out, it looks like chances continue beyond. Op Euro buried one of the shortwaves that could give us a storm on the 10-11th, and then brought it up near the end of the run for a weak snow event. Lots of moving parts, but our chances remain well above normal.
  17. WxUSAF
    Surface based instability after dark on NYE. What a world.
  18. WxUSAF
    Max was over DC at 0z and over Fredericksburg now? That’s essentially an identical solution for D6. Caveat that I haven’t looked at anything besides @NorthArlington101’s snowmap.
  19. WxUSAF
    I don’t but google translate does
  20. WxUSAF
    For the period around the 10-11th, you can cycle through the 500mb vorticity panels of the last several runs and see what we need quite clearly. When our 50/50 low is sitting over Vermont, there’s no storm.
  21. WxUSAF
    Anecdotally, and probably me only remembering the hits, but I feel like often guidance strips all the precip off these weak waves in the mountains in the mid range. Then in the short range you see that they don’t totally Peter out.
  22. WxUSAF
    Gosh I wish this wasn’t still 6 days away. Already feels like we’ve been watching this period for 10 days
  23. WxUSAF
    Anyone know about the degree of experimentality in the euro AI? Asking for a friend. TIA!
  24. WxUSAF
    Setting up for the typical “they are always wrong”
  25. WxUSAF
    As always, the warm anomalies are just of much larger magnitude than the cold. Even though by raw count there were 17 BN days to 14 AN.
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